Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T02:33:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
14 0x14ff…a391 sports 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 250d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$21 (-0%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate49%19W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$378
7 days−$378
14 days−$378
30 days−$378
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$119
other 26% −$379
world 2% −$100
weather 1% −$30
politics 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-25.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -27.7% -34.6% 50% 50% -40.7%
≤30d 2 -27.7% -34.6% 50% 50% -40.7%
≤90d 7 -23.2% -30.5% 29% 29% -40.1%
all 39 -17.1% -25.0% 49% 46% -22.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.0% 46% -22.9%
10% -32.2% 41% -30.3%
15% -38.7% 36% -37.0%
20% -44.7% 21% -43.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% too few recent
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late -59% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$91 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

250d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses19 / 20
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 39
History coverage250d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $610 −$600 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $497 +$222 +45%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Apr 14 $136 −$2 -1%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Playof Apr 11 $101 −$101 -100%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Astralis (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Playoffs Apr 11 $90 −$90 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Playoff Apr 10 $68 +$132 +194%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs PARIVISION (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterd Apr 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterda Mar 28 $100 +$163 +163%
Lakers vs. Pelicans Mar 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Pistons vs. Hawks Mar 27 $57 −$57 -100%
Patriots vs. Broncos Mar 27 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) Mar 27 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Mar 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs TYLOO (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group A Mar 27 $150 −$127 -85%
Nets vs. Celtics Mar 27 $40 −$40 -100%
Texans vs. Steelers Mar 27 $30 −$30 -100%
Commanders vs. Dolphins Mar 27 $44 −$44 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner Mar 27 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? Mar 27 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Mar 27 $200 −$200 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C or higher on March 13 Mar 27 $30 −$30 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31? Mar 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 20% or more? Mar 27 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 22 $50 +$28 +55%
Timberwolves vs. Thunder Mar 20 $51 +$14 +28%
Kings vs. Grizzlies Feb 27 $39 +$61 +156%
Chargers vs. Patriots Jan 12 $99 $0 +0%
49ers vs. Browns Dec 02 $64 +$26 +41%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Nov 16 $75 +$79 +104%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Vitality (BO3) Nov 15 $106 +$44 +42%
Timberwolves vs. Nets Nov 04 $276 +$32 +12%
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster - Game 3 Winner Oct 29 $100 +$56 +56%
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster - Game 2 Winner Oct 29 $100 +$69 +70%
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster - Game 1 Winner Oct 29 $100 +$69 +70%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner Oct 28 $100 +$43 +43%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner Oct 28 $200 +$90 +45%
Trump strikes another drug boat by Oct 31? Oct 23 $20 +$7 +33%
LoL: Gen.G vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner Oct 23 $20 +$9 +43%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs CTBC Flying Oyster - Game 1 Winner Oct 22 $200 +$41 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 26¢ $102 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 46¢ $508 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 95¢ $253 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 95¢ $270 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 95¢ $195 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 65¢ $497 10h
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B SELL Legacy 60¢ $135 74d
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Astralis (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Playoffs BUY 3DMAX 12¢ $6 77d
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Astralis (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Playoffs BUY 3DMAX 12¢ $0 77d
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Astralis (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Playoffs BUY 3DMAX 12¢ $7 77d
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Astralis (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Playoffs BUY 3DMAX 12¢ $1 77d
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Astralis (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Playoffs BUY 3DMAX 12¢ $3 77d
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Astralis (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Playoffs BUY 3DMAX 12¢ $3 77d
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Astralis (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Playoffs BUY 3DMAX 13¢ $21 77d
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B BUY Legacy 28¢ $0 77d
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B BUY Legacy 28¢ $75 77d
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Astralis (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Playoffs BUY 3DMAX 30¢ $50 77d
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B BUY Legacy 28¢ $7 77d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Playof BUY TheMongolz 46¢ $101 77d
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B BUY Legacy 28¢ $0 77d
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B BUY Legacy 28¢ $1 77d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Playoff BUY TheMongolz 34¢ $68 78d
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B BUY Legacy 35¢ $49 80d
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B BUY Legacy 35¢ $4 80d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs PARIVISION (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterd BUY PARIVISION 43¢ $100 90d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterda BUY PARIVISION 38¢ $100 91d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs SELL G2 Esports 45¢ $78 96d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs BUY G2 Esports 29¢ $50 96d
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs TYLOO (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group A BUY FaZe 15¢ $50 98d
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs TYLOO (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group A SELL FaZe 15¢ $23 98d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 105 history records