Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:32:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x1502…922e weather 1442 markets active 1h ago coverage 62d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 61d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$832 (-2%) realized −$848 · open +$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate65%927W / 498L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day32.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,520now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$87
7 days−$250
14 days−$97
30 days−$935
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$634
other 0% −$1
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 90 +2.1% -7.6% 83% 12% -12.5%
≤30d 951 -15.7% -23.8% 52% 11% -13.2%
≤90d 1425 +3.1% -6.7% 65% 12% -11.2%
all 1425 +3.1% -6.7% 65% 12% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.7% 12% -11.2%
10% ← realistic here -15.6% 9% -19.7%
15% -23.8% 9% -27.4%
20% -31.2% 8% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +33% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$1,520
Realized−$848
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses927 / 498
Open positions17
Markets (closed)1425 / 1442
History coverage62d ⚠
Avg bet$31
Trades / day32.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 1425 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 19? No 96¢ 94¢ $183 $178 −$5 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 18? No 95¢ 99¢ $147 $153 +$6 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 19? No 96¢ 98¢ $149 $152 +$3 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 18? No 98¢ 99¢ $150 $152 +$2 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 19? No 96¢ 97¢ $150 $151 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 19? No 94¢ 93¢ $145 $144 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 18? No 97¢ 100¢ $119 $123 +$4 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 18? No 98¢ 100¢ $71 $73 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 19? No 98¢ 99¢ $59 $60 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on June 20? No 96¢ 100¢ $56 $58 +$2 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 19? No 98¢ 99¢ $29 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 18? No 97¢ 100¢ $27 $28 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 18? No 96¢ 100¢ $18 $18 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on June 19? No 98¢ 99¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+2%)
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 35°C on June 18? No 96¢ 100¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? Yes 19¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+425%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 40 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 18 $78 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 17? Jun 18 $32 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +95%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $3 +$3 +103%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $150 +$5 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $150 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $145 +$12 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $149 +$7 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $200 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $150 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 17? Jun 17 $38 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +81%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 16? Jun 17 $200 +$6 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 16? Jun 17 $150 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 16? Jun 17 $84 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 16? Jun 17 $150 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 16? Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +84%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $73 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 +$5 +458%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $171 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $149 +$7 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $150 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 15? Jun 16 $150 +$7 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 15? Jun 16 $13 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? Jun 16 $11 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 15? Jun 16 $147 +$8 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 16 $143 +$15 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 15? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +91%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +81%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $146 +$12 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $148 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +212%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 16? Jun 15 $200 −$200 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on June 16? Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $200 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $200 +$6 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $27 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on June 14? Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 15 $20 +$2 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 15 $145 +$13 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 14? Jun 15 $136 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 14? Jun 15 $139 +$5 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on June 14? Jun 15 $22 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 15 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 15 $7 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 14? Jun 15 $149 +$7 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 19? BUY No 97¢ $14 52m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 19? BUY No 97¢ $15 52m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 19? BUY No 97¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 19? BUY No 97¢ $18 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 19? BUY No 97¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 19? BUY No 96¢ $107 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on June 20? BUY No 96¢ $56 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $29 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 19? BUY No 94¢ $146 3h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? SELL Yes 80¢ $4 6h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 19? BUY No 97¢ $24 9h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 19? BUY No 96¢ $125 10h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 18? BUY No 95¢ $147 12h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $59 12h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 19? BUY No 96¢ $149 15h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $16 18h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 50¢ $1 20h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 41¢ $1 22h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $71 24h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 17? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 54¢ $1 28h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? SELL Yes 80¢ $4 29h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $150 31h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? BUY Yes 42¢ $3 31h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $27 39h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $119 43h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 53¢ $1 44h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $150 47h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? BUY Yes 91¢ $11 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,519.94 · official $1,517.94 (match) · 3500 history records