Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:49:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x1502…bba5 other 104 markets active 0h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,395 (-2%) realized −$1,395 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate12%12W / 91L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$885per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$554now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$8
14 days−$14
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 47% −$49
other 38% −$1,355
sports 10% +$7
world 3% −$3
economics 1% −$2
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 23 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 85 -17.7% -25.6% 7% 2% -11.9%
all 103 -8.3% -17.1% 12% 7% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.1% 7% -10.9%
10% -25.0% 7% -19.5%
15% -32.3% 7% -27.2%
20% -38.9% 6% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,316) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -15% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$24 · ×2.48 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$554
Realized−$1,395
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses12 / 91
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)103 / 104
History coverage107d
Avg bet$885
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $555 $554 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $2,204 −$3 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $257 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $276 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $835 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $677 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $1,765 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $651 −$1 -0%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $888 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $1,316 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $758 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $1,225 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $1,760 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 04 $58 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 04 $108 $0 +0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $1,810 −$2 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $1,103 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 28 $110 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $1,221 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $171 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $1,038 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $122 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $235 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $1,504 −$2 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $1,911 −$2 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 07 $275 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $253 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 06 $254 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $255 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $1,244 −$2 -0%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-02? May 05 $723 −$723 -100%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $633 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $2,344 −$2 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $1,992 −$2 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $2,026 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $1,009 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $1,001 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,697 −$2 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $2,851 −$3 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $1,010 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $1,009 −$2 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $896 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $971 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $959 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $876 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $2,813 −$3 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $1,007 −$1 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $1,572 −$2 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 10 $933 −$1 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 07 $1,556 −$2 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 04 $1,706 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $394 24m
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $395 1h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $257 21h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $257 21h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $276 23h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $276 25h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $217 27h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $217 29h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $555 2d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $833 4d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $835 5d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $676 6d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $677 6d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $878 6d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $880 7d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $650 7d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $651 7d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $875 10d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $876 10d
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $886 11d
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $888 11d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $808 12d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $809 12d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $757 13d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $758 13d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $884 13d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $885 14d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $762 14d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $764 14d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $754 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $554.28 · official $554.28 (match) · 350 history records