Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:25:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
15 0x1506…e79e sports 424 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$93 (+4%) realized +$107 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%163W / 235L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day41.5pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$179now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$86
7 days+$110
14 days+$98
30 days+$98
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% +$101
other 6% −$16
crypto 0% +$4
world 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 225 -18.3% -26.0% 42% 42% -4.5%
≤30d 398 -15.0% -23.1% 41% 41% -5.5%
≤90d 398 -15.0% -23.1% 41% 41% -5.5%
all 398 -15.0% -23.1% 41% 41% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.1% 41% -5.5%
10% ← realistic here -30.5% 41% -14.5%
15% -37.2% 39% -22.8%
20% -43.4% 33% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$4 · ×1.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$179
Realized+$107
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses163 / 235
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions20
Markets (closed)398 / 424
History coverage11d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day41.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 398 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 6.5 Corners Under 51¢ 74¢ $30 $44 +$14 (+45%)
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Over 70¢ 65¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-7%)
Japan vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Over 55¢ 50¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-9%)
Japan vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 4.5 Corners Over 42¢ 68¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+61%)
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 5.5 Corners Under 62¢ 78¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+27%)
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Over 49¢ 30¢ $20 $12 −$8 (-38%)
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Over 73¢ 37¢ $20 $10 −$10 (-49%)
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Total Corners Odd or Even? Even 50¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 56¢ 45¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-20%)
Japan vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Under 42¢ 26¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-38%)
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Under 31¢ 34¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 Under 52¢ 18¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-64%)
Japan vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime? Yes 44¢ 56¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+27%)
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Under 43¢ 41¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Yes 56¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 48¢ 37¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-23%)
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 20¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-45%)
Japan vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 32¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-45%)
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Netherlands? Yes 15¢ 4¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-77%)
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 233 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Germany: Draw at halftime? Jun 25 $1 +$1 +93%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $17 +$14 +83%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $30 +$11 +35%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 25 $2 −$2 -98%
Germany to win the second half? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -99%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 2 Germany? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $1 +$3 +325%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Mexico O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 25 $20 +$16 +79%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $81 +$32 +40%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $17 −$17 -99%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: South Africa O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 25 $20 +$18 +88%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $20 −$20 -99%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Total Corners Odd or Even? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -99%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Team to Take First Corner Jun 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Total Corners Odd or Even? Jun 25 $1 +$1 +93%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Team to Take First Corner Jun 25 $20 +$10 +48%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 25 $2 +$1 +62%
Morocco vs. Haiti: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $5 +$4 +86%
Morocco to win the second half? Jun 25 $1 +$1 +50%
Morocco vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $3 +$4 +146%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Scotland O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $20 +$16 +79%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Team to Take First Corner Jun 25 $10 +$4 +44%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $20 +$14 +67%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $2 +$2 +83%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $1 −$1 -98%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $2 −$2 -98%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $1 −$1 -98%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Korea Republic to score first vs. South Africa? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -99%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -99%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $3 −$3 -99%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 24 $30 −$30 -99%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Scotland O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 24 $5 −$5 -99%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $20 −$20 -99%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Total Corners Odd or Even? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $5 −$5 -99%
Morocco vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $1 −$1 -99%
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $1 −$1 -99%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Switzerland O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 24 $5 +$5 +101%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 24 $5 +$2 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Total Corners Odd or Even? BUY Even 50¢ $10 1h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Under 51¢ $30 1h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 73¢ $20 1h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 31¢ $5 1h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 50¢ $1 1h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 43¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Netherlands? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 1h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 52¢ $10 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 56¢ $10 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Under 62¢ $10 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 42¢ $10 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $20 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Under 42¢ $10 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 70¢ $30 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 20¢ $1 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 32¢ $1 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $1 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $20 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 1h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $17 2h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 22¢ $2 2h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 73¢ $30 2h
Germany to win the second half? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 3h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 2 Germany? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 3h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 57¢ $17 21h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 71¢ $81 21h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 42¢ $20 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $179.28 · official $180.37 (match) · 630 history records