Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T17:11:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7.5
score
15 0x1507…e175 sports 101 markets active 1h ago coverage 119d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist
Total PnL +$4,630 (+16%) realized +$4,629 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip
Net edge+16%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate59%58W / 41L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$295per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$334est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$271
7 days−$425
14 days+$63
30 days−$240
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$2,387
politics 11% $0
world 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -25.3% -32.4% 47% 33% -17.2%
≤30d 24 +62.4% +47.0% 46% 33% -19.1%
≤90d 65 +29.9% +17.5% 52% 42% -8.9%
all 99 +28.6% +16.3% 59% 43% -2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +16.3% 43% -2.6%
10% +5.2% 35% -12.0%
15% -5.0% 29% -20.5%
20% -14.3% 24% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +41% → late +17% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$139 vs −$139 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized+$4,629
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses58 / 41
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$334
Open positions2
Markets (closed)99 / 101
History coverage119d
Avg bet$295
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 88¢ 98¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+11%)
UFC Fight Night: Ikram Aliskerov vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Main Card) Brunno Ferreira 11¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Abus Magomedov vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (Middleweight, Jun 27 $698 −$195 -28%
UFC Fight Night: Eric Nolan vs. Farman Hasanov (Welterweight, Prelims) Jun 27 $300 −$59 -20%
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Pre Jun 27 $811 +$134 +16%
UFC Fight Night: Javier Reyes vs. Kaan Ofli (Featherweight, Prelims) Jun 27 $299 +$171 +57%
UFC Fight Night: Julius Walker vs. Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev (Light Heavy Jun 27 $1,000 +$172 +17%
UFC Fight Night: Theodor Berggren vs. Daniil Donchenko (Welterweight, Jun 27 $500 +$48 +10%
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, Jun 24 $600 +$6 +1%
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $100 +$154 +154%
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Ma Jun 21 $100 −$98 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main Jun 21 $499 −$197 -39%
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $350 −$48 -14%
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweigh Jun 20 $800 −$195 -24%
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims Jun 20 $1,000 −$291 -29%
UFC Fight Night: Gaston Bolaños vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Pre Jun 20 $200 −$196 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre Jun 20 $200 +$168 +84%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 20 $10 +$1 +8%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $307 +$393 +128%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $1,123 +$498 +44%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $410 −$400 -97%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu Jun 14 $1 $0 -6%
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) Jun 07 $306 −$300 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Angela Hill vs. Jingnan Xiong (Women's Strawweight, P May 30 $1 +$2 +149%
UFC Fight Night: Loma Lookboonmee vs. Jaqueline Amorim (Women's Straww May 30 $4 −$4 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Mai May 18 $712 +$9 +1%
UFC Fight Night: Ketlen Vieira vs. Jacqueline Cavalcanti (Women's Bant May 18 $206 −$206 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (Featherweight, Main Car May 17 $103 +$265 +258%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $3,321 $0 -0%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 13 $716 −$91 -13%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 13 $308 +$472 +153%
UFC Fight Night: Ignacio Bahamondes vs. Tofiq Musayev (Lightweight, Pr May 10 $500 −$500 -100%
UFC 327: Curtis Blaydes vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) May 10 $300 −$300 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Julia Polastri vs. Talita Alencar (Women's Strawweigh May 10 $298 −$298 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Tai Tuivasa vs. Louie Sutherland (Heavyweight, Main C May 10 $409 +$132 +32%
UFC 328: Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki (Lightweight, Prelims) May 10 $203 −$203 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Shamil Gaziev vs. Brando Pericic (Heavyweight, Prelim May 10 $219 −$204 -93%
UFC Fight Night: Wes Schultz vs. Ben Johnston (Middleweight, Prelims) May 10 $303 −$189 -62%
UFC 327: Tatiana Suarez vs. Loopy Godínez (Women's Strawweight, Early May 10 $200 −$200 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Ryan Spann vs. Marcus Buchecha (Heavyweight, Prelims) May 10 $398 +$54 +14%
UFC Fight Night: Raoni Barcelos vs. Montel Jackson (Bantamweight, Main May 10 $199 −$199 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Aljamain Sterling vs. Youssef Zalal (Featherweight, M May 10 $398 −$117 -29%
UFC Fight Night: Dom Mar Fan vs. Kody Steele (Lightweight, Prelims) May 10 $456 −$109 -24%
UFC Fight Night: Joselyne Edwards vs. Norma Dumont (Women's Bantamweig May 10 $249 −$65 -26%
UFC 328: Pat Sabatini vs. William Gomis (Featherweight, Early Prelims) May 10 $103 −$103 -100%
UFC 327: Johnny Walker vs. Dominick Reyes (Light Heavyweight, Main Car May 10 $100 −$100 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Karine Silva vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius (Women's Flywei May 10 $348 −$246 -71%
Ducks vs. Flames May 10 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Mandel Nallo vs. Jai Herbert (Lightweight, Main Card) May 10 $398 +$61 +15%
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C May 10 $612 +$570 +93%
UFC 328: Roman Kopylov vs. Marco Tulio (Middleweight, Early Prelims) May 09 $306 +$278 +91%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Fight Night: Ikram Aliskerov vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Ma SELL Brunno Ferreira $29 30m
UFC Fight Night: Ikram Aliskerov vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Ma BUY Brunno Ferreira 11¢ $100 31m
UFC Fight Night: Abus Magomedov vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (Middleweight, SELL Abus Magomedov 100¢ $596 38m
UFC Fight Night: Abus Magomedov vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (Middleweight, BUY Abus Magomedov 82¢ $498 50m
UFC Fight Night: Abus Magomedov vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (Middleweight, BUY Michal Oleksiejczuk 37¢ $200 52m
UFC Fight Night: Eric Nolan vs. Farman Hasanov (Welterweight, Prelims) SELL Eric Nolan 20¢ $241 1h
UFC Fight Night: Eric Nolan vs. Farman Hasanov (Welterweight, Prelims) BUY Eric Nolan 29¢ $200 1h
UFC Fight Night: Eric Nolan vs. Farman Hasanov (Welterweight, Prelims) BUY Eric Nolan 17¢ $100 1h
UFC Fight Night: Julius Walker vs. Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev (Light Heavy SELL Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev 100¢ $1,172 1h
UFC Fight Night: Julius Walker vs. Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev (Light Heavy BUY Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev 84¢ $1,000 1h
UFC Fight Night: Javier Reyes vs. Kaan Ofli (Featherweight, Prelims) SELL Kaan Ofli 100¢ $466 2h
UFC Fight Night: Javier Reyes vs. Kaan Ofli (Featherweight, Prelims) BUY Kaan Ofli 62¢ $299 2h
UFC Fight Night: Theodor Berggren vs. Daniil Donchenko (Welterweight, SELL Daniil Donchenko 100¢ $548 2h
UFC Fight Night: Theodor Berggren vs. Daniil Donchenko (Welterweight, BUY Daniil Donchenko 95¢ $200 2h
UFC Fight Night: Theodor Berggren vs. Daniil Donchenko (Welterweight, BUY Daniil Donchenko 87¢ $300 2h
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Pre BUY Jean Matsumoto 99¢ $13 3h
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Pre SELL Jean Matsumoto 47¢ $309 3h
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Pre BUY Jean Matsumoto 29¢ $200 3h
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Pre SELL Bekzat Almakhan 73¢ $623 3h
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Pre BUY Bekzat Almakhan 83¢ $299 3h
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Pre BUY Bekzat Almakhan 57¢ $300 3h
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) SELL Manel Kape 99¢ $253 6d
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Manel Kape 38¢ $100 6d
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, SELL Navajo Stirling 99¢ $250 6d
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, BUY Navajo Stirling 77¢ $200 6d
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, SELL Ion Cutelaba 26¢ $68 6d
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, BUY Ion Cutelaba 36¢ $100 6d
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, SELL Ion Cutelaba 21¢ $154 6d
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, BUY Ion Cutelaba 23¢ $100 6d
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, BUY Ion Cutelaba 28¢ $100 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.12 · official $11.12 (match) · 340 history records