Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:57:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
15 0x1508…da86 other 69 markets active 2h ago coverage 464d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$12 (+1%) realized +$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate51%35W / 33L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 29% +$6
world 26% +$4
politics 16% $0
crypto 10% $0
culture 4% $0
finance 4% $0
economics 4% $0
tech 3% $0
sports 2% +$1
weather 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 9 +6.6% -3.6% 67% 11% -8.0%
≤90d 9 +6.6% -3.6% 67% 11% -8.0%
all 68 +0.5% -9.1% 51% 3% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 3% -8.4%
10% -17.8% 3% -17.1%
15% -25.7% 3% -25.1%
20% -33.0% 1% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.89 per $1 lost it wins $5.89
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

464d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses35 / 33
Open positions1
Markets (closed)68 / 69
History coverage464d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 68¢ 68¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $4 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 27 $11 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $38 −$1 -2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 25 $1 $0 +46%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 24 $5 $0 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 24 $47 +$1 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 22 $38 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $42 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 21 $40 +$3 +7%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in July? Jul 14 $3 −$1 -25%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 14 $18 $0 +0%
Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 14 $14 $0 +1%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 14 $14 $0 +0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Jul 14 $14 $0 +0%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Jul 13 $13 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Lula da Silva in 2025? Jul 13 $14 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting? Jul 13 $2 $0 -11%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2025 Genesis Scottish Open? Jul 13 $12 $0 -1%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 13 $13 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jul 12 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 12 $18 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Jul 11 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 National League Championshi Jul 11 $18 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Jul 11 $18 $0 -0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 11 $18 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 10 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 10 $17 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 10 $17 $0 +0%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 26 $8 $0 +3%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? Jun 20 $9 $0 +2%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? Jun 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump issue a Gold Card before June? May 31 $8 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2500 on May 30? May 29 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? May 29 $18 $0 +0%
Solana above $200 on May 30? May 28 $9 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in May? May 26 $9 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104K and $105K on May 23? May 24 $9 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $105K and $106K on May 23? May 23 $1 −$1 -74%
Will Nicușor Dan win by more than 12%? May 22 $10 $0 +4%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? May 17 $2 $0 -4%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? May 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May? May 16 $9 $0 +1%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 14 $8 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb May 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? May 12 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 12 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Pacers beat the Cavaliers 4-1? May 11 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? May 10 $17 $0 +0%
Will Israel qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 09 $17 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $27 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 5h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 7h
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 8¢ $11 21d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 8¢ $11 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 62¢ $14 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 62¢ $24 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 63¢ $38 22d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 23d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 24d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 24d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 24d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 24d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 24d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 24d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $48 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $47 24d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 24d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 24d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 24d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $38 26d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $38 27d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $43 27d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $42 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 61¢ $24 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 61¢ $19 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $40 27d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in July? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 338d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.00 · official $25.80 · 198 history records