Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:47:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x1508…0fae crypto 1009 markets active 1h ago coverage 174d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,995 (+5%) realized +$1,995 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate52%529W / 480L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day11.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$10
14 days+$73
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% +$1,632
other 2% −$5
world 2% +$16
politics 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +11.9% +1.3% 67% 67% -2.0%
≤30d 81 -4.8% -13.9% 49% 48% -9.0%
≤90d 318 -7.6% -16.4% 51% 41% -11.4%
all 1009 -3.0% -12.3% 52% 46% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 46% -5.8%
10% -20.7% 44% -14.8%
15% -28.3% 42% -23.0%
20% -35.3% 41% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$27 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

174d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,995
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses529 / 480
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1009 / 1009
History coverage174d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day11.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1009 Trades
no open positions (422 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 29 $31 −$6 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 29 $16 +$14 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 29 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 29 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 28 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$4 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 28 $3 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 28 $6 +$5 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 27 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 26 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 26 $22 −$21 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 25 $16 +$15 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 21 $19 +$31 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 20 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $9 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $12 +$14 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$11 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$10 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$20 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$20 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$10 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$20 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$10 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $12 +$9 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $28 −$3 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $16 +$14 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 05 $3 +$5 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 04 $111 −$108 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 04 $38 −$37 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 04 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 04 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 04 $4 +$5 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 04 $3 −$3 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2567 history records