Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:35:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
15 0x1509…ca95 sports 138 markets active 0h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$66,618 (+22%) realized +$66,218 · open +$400
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate54%73W / 63L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$2,176per market
Trades / day33.7pace
Fees−$2,858est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$20,677now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18,827
7 days+$28,950
14 days+$55,965
30 days+$50,319
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% +$26,933
other 33% +$47,426
world 3% −$7,757
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+2.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +26.5% +14.5% 55% 55% +18.6%
≤30d 43 +26.3% +14.3% 60% 58% +22.3%
≤90d 136 +13.5% +2.7% 54% 51% +12.3%
all 136 +13.5% +2.7% 54% 51% +12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.7 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.7% 51% +12.3%
10% -7.1% 51% +1.5%
15% ← realistic here -16.1% 48% -8.3%
20% -24.3% 46% -17.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$2,640) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late +18% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
18.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,276 vs −$1,612 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.66 per $1 lost it wins $1.66
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$20,677
Realized+$66,218
Unrealized+$400
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses73 / 63
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$2,858
Open positions2
Markets (closed)136 / 138
History coverage75d
Avg bet$2,176
Trades / day33.7
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Qatar 48¢ 50¢ $10,861 $11,199 +$338 (+3%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? No 76¢ 76¢ $9,416 $9,478 +$62 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6,265 −$6,265 -100%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $4,594 +$5,847 +127%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $9,557 +$11,681 +122%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 16 $2,829 −$2,707 -96%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $5,804 +$5,830 +100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $15,852 +$4,442 +28%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $2,945 +$2,857 +97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$29 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $28 +$72 +262%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $6,331 −$6,331 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $6,150 −$6,150 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5,436 −$5,436 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $7,293 +$10,495 +144%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1,760 +$1,497 +85%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 13 $593 $0 -0%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $3,528 −$3,528 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $8,446 +$8,790 +104%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $52 +$56 +109%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $4,756 −$854 -18%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $5,788 +$8,682 +150%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 11 $12,368 +$11,633 +94%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $6,509 +$10,172 +156%
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $487 +$446 +92%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 09 $2,066 +$2,239 +108%
Will Kashima Antlers win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $850 +$1,127 +132%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 06 $1,358 +$1,398 +103%
Northern Ireland vs. Guinea: O/U 1.5 Jun 04 $9 $0 +2%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 Jun 04 $1,042 +$1,129 +108%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 04 $1,303 +$1,411 +108%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks Jun 02 $134 +$102 +76%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5 May 31 $946 +$984 +104%
Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $660 +$545 +83%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $409 +$201 +49%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $499 −$496 -99%
Will Qingdao Xihaian FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $71 −$69 -97%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $1,419 +$424 +30%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $99 −$99 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 217.5 May 26 $309 −$309 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 May 22 $5,035 −$5,034 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) May 21 $6,880 −$6,873 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 May 21 $2,737 −$2,722 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5 May 20 $860 −$860 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $3,900 +$6,021 +154%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5) May 18 $6,240 +$5,640 +90%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1,790 −$1,790 -100%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $5,000 +$3,563 +71%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $8,424 +$2,305 +27%
RCD Mallorca vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 2.5 May 10 $35 +$50 +144%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $1,332 −$1,332 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $2,205 +$2,245 +102%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL No 76¢ $110 29m
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY No 76¢ $358 32m
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY No 76¢ $31 32m
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY No 76¢ $16 32m
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY No 76¢ $32 32m
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY No 76¢ $154 32m
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY No 76¢ $158 32m
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY No 76¢ $3 32m
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY No 76¢ $5 33m
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY No 76¢ $3 33m
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY No 76¢ $10 33m
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY No 76¢ $317 33m
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY No 76¢ $15 33m
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY No 76¢ $16 33m
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY No 76¢ $16 33m
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY No 76¢ $3 33m
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY No 76¢ $6 33m
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY No 76¢ $6 33m
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY No 76¢ $63 33m
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY No 76¢ $6 33m
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY No 76¢ $16 33m
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY No 76¢ $19 33m
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY No 76¢ $3 33m
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY No 76¢ $9 33m
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY No 76¢ $6 33m
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY No 76¢ $6 33m
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY No 76¢ $1,267 33m
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY No 76¢ $63 33m
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY No 76¢ $3 33m
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY No 76¢ $16 33m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20,677.36 · official $20,677.36 (match) · 2697 history records