Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:01:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x150a…60da other 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 485d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate39%14W / 22L
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% −$9
other 38% +$2
politics 8% $0
crypto 6% $0
sports 2% +$9
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -3.1% -12.3% 50% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 11 -0.0% -9.5% 18% 9% -12.7%
≤90d 11 -0.0% -9.5% 18% 9% -12.7%
all 36 -1.3% -10.7% 39% 6% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 6% -9.2%
10% -19.3% 6% -17.8%
15% -27.1% 6% -25.8%
20% -34.2% 3% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

485d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses14 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage485d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 47¢ 48¢ $31 $32 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $5 $0 -7%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $28 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $37 −$7 -19%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $36 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $42 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $7 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 23 $39 −$1 -2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $5 $0 -3%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 22 $39 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $38 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 19 $16 −$1 -4%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $22 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Dec 14 $2 $0 -15%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? Dec 14 $2 $0 +4%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 16 $19 $0 -1%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? May 27 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? May 24 $1 $0 +0%
Will the National Party of Suriname win the most seats in the 2025 Sur May 24 $18 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2025 French Open? May 23 $18 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? May 22 $19 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? May 21 $21 $0 -1%
Will Susan Crawford win by 10% or more? May 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? Apr 07 $22 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Apr 05 $21 $0 +0%
Will McDonald's worker get reward money before April? Apr 03 $21 $0 +1%
2025 March hottest on record? Mar 30 $1 $0 -17%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the Western Conference? Mar 30 $20 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 21-28? Mar 29 $18 +$1 +7%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will the New York Rangers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 24 $1 $0 -31%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 China Grand Prix? Mar 24 $17 +$1 +7%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 again by March 31? Mar 22 $17 $0 +1%
Will Trump's approval rating be 49.0% or higher on March 21? Mar 21 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 20 $18 $0 +0%
Will Sue Bird make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of F Mar 19 $19 $0 +0%
Oral Roberts vs. Denver Mar 04 $10 +$9 +96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $31 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 6h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 7h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $29 15h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $28 16h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $30 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $12 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $25 22d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $19 22d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $19 22d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $36 23d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $20 23d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $16 23d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $20 23d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $3 23d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $18 23d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $42 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $7 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $7 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 77¢ $30 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 77¢ $8 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $39 25d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 25d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 25d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 26d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 26d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 26d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $4 27d
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $28 28d
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $5 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.21 · official $31.82 (match) · 117 history records