Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:13:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
15 0x150b…261f other 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 192d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,483 (-33%) realized −$1,482 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate44%4W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$409per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$941now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$127
7 days+$127
14 days+$127
30 days+$127
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% −$1,249
tech 12% −$244
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-45.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -2.9% -12.1% 67% 67% -2.3%
≤30d 3 -2.9% -12.1% 67% 67% -2.3%
≤90d 3 -2.9% -12.1% 67% 67% -2.3%
all 9 -39.9% -45.6% 44% 22% -47.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -45.6% 22% -47.8%
10% -50.8% 22% -52.8%
15% -55.6% 11% -57.4%
20% -59.9% 11% -61.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$124 vs −$398 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

192d coverage
Net worth$941
Realized−$1,482
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)9 / 11
History coverage192d
Avg bet$409
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $490 $485 −$4 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $453 $456 +$3 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $767 +$185 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $459 +$308 +67%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $370 −$366 -99%
Will Meteora be accused of insider trading? Feb 25 $1,230 −$1,230 -100%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? Dec 20 $26 −$13 -50%
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 17? Dec 19 $13 $0 +3%
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 16? Dec 16 $146 −$133 -91%
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? Dec 16 $144 +$2 +1%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? Dec 12 $390 −$246 -63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $496 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $456 4h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $953 15h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $767 17h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $767 18h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 59¢ $459 20h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $370 44h
Will Meteora be accused of insider trading? BUY Yes 45¢ $1,230 112d
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? BUY Yes 10¢ $13 179d
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? SELL No 90¢ $13 179d
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? BUY No 92¢ $13 179d
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 17? BUY Yes 97¢ $13 182d
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 16? SELL Yes 1¢ $13 182d
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 16? BUY Yes 11¢ $146 183d
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $146 183d
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? BUY Yes 89¢ $144 186d
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? SELL Yes 9¢ $144 186d
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? BUY Yes 23¢ $390 191d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $941.41 · official $941.41 (match) · 19 history records