Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:56:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
15 0x150c…add3 sports 347 markets active 1h ago coverage 170d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$946 (+1%) realized +$948 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate76%262W / 81L
Whale WR96%big bets
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$479per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$90est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$118now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$30
7 days+$77
14 days+$52
30 days−$5,961
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 41% +$2,144
crypto 32% −$5,206
other 22% +$2,657
finance 4% +$829
politics 0% +$29
world 0% +$79
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -15.1% -23.2% 65% 58% -7.6%
≤30d 84 -6.6% -15.5% 70% 64% -25.0%
≤90d 279 -2.4% -11.7% 74% 63% -12.3%
all 343 -0.2% -9.7% 76% 60% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 60% -9.2%
10% -18.3% 41% -17.9%
15% -26.2% 18% -25.8%
20% -33.5% 9% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 96% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$166 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$118
Realized+$948
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses262 / 81
Whale WR (big bets)96%
Est. fees paid−$90
Open positions4
Markets (closed)343 / 347
History coverage170d
Avg bet$479
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 343 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Plovdiv: Tommaso Compagnucci vs Maxim Mrva Maxim Mrva 71¢ 72¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech Naomi Osaka 75¢ 70¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-6%)
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider Diana Shnaider 66¢ 66¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Bad Homburg Open: Iva Jovic vs Xinyu Wang Iva Jovic 74¢ 74¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $46 +$27 +60%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $80 +$15 +18%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $40 +$24 +60%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $713 +$94 +13%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Felix Gill vs Marco Trungelliti Jun 20 $35 −$35 -99%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Filippo Romano vs Murphy Casson Jun 20 $15 −$15 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Paula Badosa Jun 19 $18 +$8 +46%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $75 +$6 +8%
Asuncion 2: Conner Huertas Del Pino vs Juan Manuel La Serna Jun 18 $18 −$17 -99%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $35 +$9 +24%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $60 +$24 +40%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $70 +$14 +20%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $16 −$15 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $70 +$7 +10%
Asuncion 2: Eduardo Ribeiro vs Juan Manuel La Serna Jun 17 $14 +$13 +93%
Poznan: Norbert Gombos vs Dalibor Svrcina Jun 17 $35 +$9 +24%
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Thomas Faurel Jun 17 $35 −$35 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $63 +$24 +38%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $70 +$16 +23%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $11 −$10 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $56 +$28 +50%
Poznan: Gonzalo Bueno vs Tomasz Berkieta Jun 16 $35 +$10 +29%
Asuncion 2: Ignacio Monzon vs Juan Manuel La Serna Jun 16 $35 +$9 +24%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $16 −$16 -98%
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Daniel Michalski Jun 16 $71 +$28 +40%
Poznan: Maxim Mrva vs Akira Santillan Jun 16 $71 +$24 +34%
Figueira Da Foz: Elena Micic vs Francisca Jorge Jun 16 $35 −$35 -100%
Poznan: Florian Broska vs Lukas Neumayer Jun 16 $35 −$35 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $70 +$16 +23%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $619 +$81 +13%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $80 −$79 -98%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $70 +$10 +14%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $70 +$12 +17%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $551 +$23 +4%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $14 +$7 +52%
Poznan: Duje Ajdukovic vs Dalibor Svrcina Jun 15 $68 +$13 +18%
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $26 +$15 +57%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $33 +$11 +32%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $587 +$56 +10%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $33 −$33 -99%
Tucuman: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez Jun 14 $13 −$13 -98%
Tucuman: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Juan Manuel La Serna Jun 10 $205 −$203 -99%
Bratislava: Petr Brunclik vs Andrej Martin Jun 10 $163 +$42 +26%
Tucuman: Karim Bennani vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna Jun 10 $77 +$86 +112%
Tyler: Liam Draxl vs Sebastian Gorzny Jun 09 $50 +$14 +27%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $451 −$450 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Plovdiv: Tommaso Compagnucci vs Maxim Mrva BUY Maxim Mrva 71¢ $40 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 66¢ $20 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 BUY Under 90¢ $80 10h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $15 10h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $46 10h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 1.5 BUY Under 84¢ $80 13h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 62¢ $40 15h
Bad Homburg Open: Iva Jovic vs Xinyu Wang BUY Iva Jovic 74¢ $20 16h
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech BUY Naomi Osaka 75¢ $40 22h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 88¢ $713 33h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Felix Gill vs Marco Trungelliti BUY Felix Gill 57¢ $35 43h
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Filippo Romano vs Murphy Casson BUY Filippo Romano 65¢ $15 2d
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Paula Badosa BUY Linda Noskova 68¢ $18 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Under 92¢ $75 3d
Asuncion 2: Conner Huertas Del Pino vs Juan Manuel La Serna BUY Juan Manuel La Serna 68¢ $18 3d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 80¢ $35 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $60 4d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $16 4d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 91¢ $70 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 83¢ $70 4d
Asuncion 2: Eduardo Ribeiro vs Juan Manuel La Serna BUY Juan Manuel La Serna 51¢ $14 4d
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Thomas Faurel BUY Thomas Faurel 75¢ $35 4d
Poznan: Norbert Gombos vs Dalibor Svrcina BUY Dalibor Svrcina 80¢ $35 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $63 5d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $15 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $70 5d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $11 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $56 5d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $16 5d
Poznan: Gonzalo Bueno vs Tomasz Berkieta BUY Gonzalo Bueno 77¢ $35 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $117.90 · official $117.90 (match) · 765 history records