Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:58:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x150f…ed48 crypto 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 187d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$50 (+6%) realized +$58 · open −$8
Gross ROI / mkt +67% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +51% what you keep after slip
Net edge+51%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate65%13W / 7L
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$135now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$9
14 days+$9
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$7
crypto 23% +$47
tech 16% $0
world 15% +$9
politics 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)+50.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +7.5% -2.7% 100% 0% -2.7%
≤30d 1 +7.5% -2.7% 100% 0% -2.7%
≤90d 11 +118.9% +98.0% 36% 9% -10.4%
all 20 +66.7% +50.9% 65% 10% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +50.9% 10% -9.7%
10% +36.4% 5% -18.3%
15% +23.2% 5% -26.2%
20% +11.2% 5% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 87% · top 2 97% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +67% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +131% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$5 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.75 per $1 lost it wins $2.75
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

187d coverage
Net worth$135
Realized+$58
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses13 / 7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)20 / 22
History coverage187d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $127 $127 −$0 (-0%)
Will Based Polymarket revenue hit $5M before 2027? Yes $16 $8 −$8 (-48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 26 $118 +$9 +8%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 18 $118 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 20, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Apr 04 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Apr 04 $1 +$79 +7900%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Apr 04 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Apr 04 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 20, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Apr 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Apr 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Apr 04 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 20, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Apr 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Apr 04 $118 $0 +0%
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher world Mar 13 $38 $0 +0%
Will France win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 24 $38 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - February 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Feb 11 $38 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 Feb 09 $38 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 21 $30 $0 +0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jan 03 $6 +$1 +22%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Dec 21 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 21, 3AM ET Dec 21 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 21, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Dec 21 $84 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 99¢ $127 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $118 38d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY No 100¢ $118 83d
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $118 104d
XRP Up or Down - January 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 16¢ $80 121d
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher world BUY No 100¢ $38 121d
Will France win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? BUY No 100¢ $38 134d
Solana Up or Down - February 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $38 134d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 BUY No 100¢ $38 142d
XRP Up or Down - January 20, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down $1 154d
Solana Up or Down - January 20, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up $2 154d
XRP Up or Down - January 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up $1 154d
Solana Up or Down - January 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up $1 154d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 20, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down $6 154d
Solana Up or Down - January 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up $0 154d
XRP Up or Down - January 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up $0 154d
Solana Up or Down - January 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up $0 154d
XRP Up or Down - January 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up $0 154d
XRP Up or Down - January 20, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down $0 154d
Solana Up or Down - January 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up $0 154d
Solana Up or Down - January 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up $0 154d
Solana Up or Down - January 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up $0 154d
Solana Up or Down - January 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up $0 154d
Solana Up or Down - January 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up $0 154d
Solana Up or Down - January 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up $0 154d
Solana Up or Down - January 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up $0 154d
Solana Up or Down - January 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up $0 154d
Solana Up or Down - January 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up $0 154d
Solana Up or Down - January 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up $0 154d
Solana Up or Down - January 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up $0 154d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $135.24 · official $135.24 (match) · 130 history records