trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +7.5% | -2.7% | 100% | 0% | -2.7% |
| ≤30d | 1 | +7.5% | -2.7% | 100% | 0% | -2.7% |
| ≤90d | 11 | +118.9% | +98.0% | 36% | 9% | -10.4% |
| all | 20 | +66.7% | +50.9% | 65% | 10% | -9.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +50.9% | 10% | -9.7% |
| 10% | +36.4% | 5% | -18.3% |
| 15% | +23.2% | 5% | -26.2% |
| 20% | +11.2% | 5% | -33.5% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $127 | $127 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Based Polymarket revenue hit $5M before 2027? | Yes | 8¢ | 4¢ | $16 | $8 | −$8 (-48%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Jun 26 | $118 | +$9 | +8% |
| Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April | May 18 | $118 | $0 | +0% |
| Ethereum Up or Down - January 20, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET | Apr 04 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| XRP Up or Down - January 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET | Apr 04 | $1 | +$79 | +7900% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET | Apr 04 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| Ethereum Up or Down - January 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET | Apr 04 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| Solana Up or Down - January 20, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET | Apr 04 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET | Apr 04 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Solana Up or Down - January 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET | Apr 04 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| XRP Up or Down - January 20, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET | Apr 04 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? | Apr 04 | $118 | $0 | +0% |
| Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher world | Mar 13 | $38 | $0 | +0% |
| Will France win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? | Feb 24 | $38 | $0 | +0% |
| Solana Up or Down - February 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET | Feb 11 | $38 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 | Feb 09 | $38 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? | Jan 21 | $30 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Jan 03 | $6 | +$1 | +22% |
| Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e | Dec 21 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - December 21, 3AM ET | Dec 21 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - December 21, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET | Dec 21 | $84 | +$1 | +1% |