trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 09 | $1 | −$1 | -97% |
| Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 09 | $1 | −$1 | -97% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? | Mar 03 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? | Jan 26 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 27, 2026? | Jan 26 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? | Jan 26 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni in January 2026? | Jan 26 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027? | Jan 26 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026? | Jan 26 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? | Jan 21 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | Jan 21 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 20, 2026? | Jan 21 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will the US next strike Iran on January 21, 2026 (ET)? | Jan 21 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Space FDV above $120M one day after launch? | Jan 21 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? | Jan 21 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $92,000 and $94,000 on January 21 | Jan 21 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 21? | Jan 21 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Zama FDV above $2B one day after launch? | Jan 21 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | -100.0% | -100.0% | 0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| ≤30d | 2 | -100.0% | -100.0% | 0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| ≤90d | 2 | -100.0% | -100.0% | 0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| all | 18 | -100.0% | -100.0% | 0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -100.0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| 10% | -100.0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| 15% | -100.0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| 20% | -100.0% | 0% | -100.0% |