Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:19:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x1510…fe91 sports 246 markets active 1h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,234 (-2%) realized −$5,220 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate79%193W / 52L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$945per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Fees−$532est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$456now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,004
7 days−$3,732
14 days−$4,052
30 days−$5,023
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$3,787
other 43% −$1,450
crypto 1% −$197
world 0% −$608
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -4.1% -13.3% 66% 43% -21.3%
≤30d 140 -1.4% -10.8% 76% 35% -13.6%
≤90d 245 -2.0% -11.4% 79% 31% -10.9%
all 245 -2.0% -11.4% 79% 31% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.4% 31% -10.9%
10% ← realistic here -19.8% 12% -19.5%
15% -27.6% 6% -27.2%
20% -34.7% 4% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$1,192) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$103 vs −$497 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$456
Realized−$5,220
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses193 / 52
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Est. fees paid−$532
Open positions1
Markets (closed)245 / 246
History coverage52d
Avg bet$945
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 245 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Over 68¢ 66¢ $470 $456 −$14 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,398 −$553 -40%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $972 +$60 +6%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $931 +$36 +4%
Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals Jun 21 $360 +$574 +159%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $167 +$194 +116%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $1,046 −$880 -84%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $501 +$25 +5%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,523 −$62 -4%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $997 +$84 +8%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $258 −$255 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,192 +$60 +5%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,123 +$71 +6%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $352 −$349 -99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $192 +$159 +83%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $700 −$508 -73%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $453 +$247 +54%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $361 +$93 +26%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $223 +$138 +62%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $632 +$92 +14%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $363 −$230 -63%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $282 +$81 +29%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $731 +$42 +6%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $594 +$144 +24%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,064 +$52 +5%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $525 +$16 +3%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $447 +$77 +17%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $352 +$96 +27%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $601 −$248 -41%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $496 +$104 +21%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $312 +$66 +21%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $379 −$375 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $524 +$285 +54%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 17 $491 +$30 +6%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $617 −$608 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $552 +$66 +12%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $418 +$135 +32%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $366 +$49 +13%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1,853 −$1,486 -80%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1,908 −$54 -3%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $571 −$570 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $422 −$420 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $362 +$61 +17%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $699 −$337 -48%
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? Jun 15 $426 +$67 +16%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $1,254 +$171 +14%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $403 −$256 -64%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $501 +$42 +8%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $702 +$59 +8%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $995 +$12 +1%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 208.5 Jun 14 $401 +$20 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 68¢ $475 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 100¢ $474 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 77¢ $368 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 26¢ $371 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $1,030 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $1,032 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 94¢ $972 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 SELL Under 99¢ $968 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 BUY Under 95¢ $931 5h
Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals BUY Yes 38¢ $360 20h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $361 20h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $167 20h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 1.5 SELL Over 12¢ $166 20h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $1,046 22h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 100¢ $526 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 4¢ $20 24h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 95¢ $501 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 86¢ $442 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 84¢ $1,441 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 62¢ $1,081 25h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 BUY Under 92¢ $997 27h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 67¢ $258 27h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,251 27h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 95¢ $1,192 28h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 98¢ $1,194 28h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 92¢ $1,123 29h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $352 43h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 54¢ $192 44h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 19¢ $192 44h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 67¢ $700 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $456.18 · official $456.18 (match) · 518 history records