Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:25:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x1512…68f3 sports 1213 markets active 0h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 128d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,071 (+3%) realized +$1,085 · open −$14
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate65%783W / 419L
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day16.4pace
Fees−$110est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$111now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$55
7 days+$90
14 days+$85
30 days+$145
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% +$862
other 25% −$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 +10.8% +0.2% 71% 40% -1.9%
≤30d 115 +4.6% -5.4% 59% 40% +0.7%
≤90d 590 -9.6% -18.2% 55% 40% -7.3%
all 1202 -5.2% -14.2% 65% 31% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 31% -7.8%
10% -22.4% 28% -16.6%
15% -29.9% 26% -24.7%
20% -36.8% 23% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$12 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$111
Realized+$1,085
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses783 / 419
Est. fees paid−$110
Open positions14
Markets (closed)1202 / 1213
History coverage129d ⚠
Avg bet$34
Trades / day16.4
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 1202 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals No 50¢ 56¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+12%)
Japan vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 67¢ 82¢ $13 $16 +$3 (+23%)
Japan vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Over 58¢ 74¢ $12 $15 +$3 (+28%)
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score No 43¢ 55¢ $9 $11 +$2 (+27%)
Japan vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Over 42¢ 49¢ $8 $10 +$1 (+17%)
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Both Teams to Score Yes 35¢ 48¢ $7 $10 +$3 (+39%)
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 80¢ 82¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+2%)
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score No 40¢ 40¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 63¢ 60¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-4%)
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals Yes 16¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Over 32¢ 22¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-30%)
Maduro guilty of all counts? Yes 37¢ 18¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Brian Brobbey: 1+ goals No 51¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 50¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 141 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 25 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 25 $22 −$22 -100%
Enner Valencia: 3+ goals Jun 25 $4 $0 +0%
Deniz Undav: 3+ goals Jun 25 $78 $0 +0%
Kevin Rodríguez: 3+ goals Jun 25 $28 $0 +0%
Jamal Musiala: 3+ goals Jun 25 $64 $0 +0%
Evann Guessand: 3+ goals Jun 25 $28 $0 +0%
Maximilian Beier: 3+ goals Jun 25 $28 $0 +0%
Amad Diallo: 3+ goals Jun 25 $14 $0 +0%
Ibrahim Sangaré: 3+ goals Jun 25 $14 $0 +0%
Jamie Leweling: 3+ goals Jun 25 $14 $0 +0%
Franck Kessié: 3+ goals Jun 25 $14 $0 +0%
Nick Woltemade: 3+ goals Jun 25 $20 $0 +0%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $20 +$20 +100%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $10 +$10 +104%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 25 $10 +$10 +100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Jun 25 $10 +$10 +100%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $6 +$14 +245%
Morocco vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $8 +$12 +163%
Ayoub El Kaabi: 3+ goals Jun 25 $10 $0 +1%
Brahim Díaz: 3+ goals Jun 25 $10 $0 +1%
Soufiane Rahimi: 3+ goals Jun 25 $10 $0 +1%
Ismael Saibari: 3+ goals Jun 25 $10 $0 +1%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5 Jun 24 $9 +$11 +117%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 Jun 24 $10 +$10 +100%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Switzerland O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 24 $10 +$10 +104%
Switzerland vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $10 +$10 +92%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $11 +$9 +82%
Scotland vs. Brazil: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals Jun 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 24 $21 −$21 -100%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Luis Suárez: 1+ goals Jun 24 $13 +$7 +56%
Luis Suárez: 3+ goals Jun 24 $5 $0 +1%
Luis Díaz: 3+ goals Jun 24 $5 $0 +1%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $10 +$10 +100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 24 $10 +$10 +92%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 24 $10 +$10 +96%
Cédric Bakambu: 1+ goals Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $10 +$10 +104%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 23 $11 +$19 +170%
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $12 +$8 +72%
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals Jun 23 $14 +$6 +45%
Pedro Neto: 1+ goals Jun 23 $21 +$9 +45%
Trincão: 2+ goals Jun 23 $14 $0 +0%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 23 $27 +$3 +10%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals Jun 23 $19 +$11 +59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Japan vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 58¢ $5 28m
Japan vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 58¢ $7 50m
Japan vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 42¢ $1 51m
Japan vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 42¢ $7 52m
Japan vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 42¢ $1 55m
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals BUY Yes 16¢ $5 1h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $7 1h
Brian Brobbey: 1+ goals BUY No 51¢ $15 1h
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score BUY No 40¢ $8 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 43¢ $9 1h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 50¢ $10 1h
Evann Guessand: 3+ goals BUY No 100¢ $28 1h
Ibrahim Sangaré: 3+ goals BUY No 100¢ $14 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 32¢ $6 1h
Amad Diallo: 3+ goals BUY No 100¢ $14 1h
Franck Kessié: 3+ goals BUY No 100¢ $14 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 67¢ $13 1h
Maximilian Beier: 3+ goals BUY No 100¢ $28 1h
Kevin Rodríguez: 3+ goals BUY No 100¢ $28 1h
Nick Woltemade: 3+ goals BUY No 100¢ $20 1h
Jamie Leweling: 3+ goals BUY No 100¢ $14 1h
Enner Valencia: 3+ goals BUY No 100¢ $4 1h
Jamal Musiala: 3+ goals BUY No 100¢ $64 1h
Deniz Undav: 3+ goals BUY No 100¢ $78 1h
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals BUY No 50¢ $3 1h
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals BUY No 50¢ $2 1h
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals BUY No 50¢ $10 1h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Under 48¢ $7 25h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Under 48¢ $2 25h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 29¢ $5 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $110.80 · official $110.65 (match) · 3500 history records