Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:42:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x1513…48aa crypto 1787 markets active 0h ago coverage 19d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 19d only
✗ bot/MM pace (144 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$845 (+29%) realized +$844 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate57%670W / 515L
Drawdown77%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day144.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$827
7 days−$398
14 days−$216
30 days+$260
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,121
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (144 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 675 +8.1% -2.2% 41% 41% -39.8%
≤30d 1185 +32.2% +19.6% 57% 56% +0.4%
≤90d 1185 +32.2% +19.6% 57% 56% +0.4%
all 1185 +32.2% +19.6% 57% 56% +0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover144.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +19.6% 56% +0.4%
10% ← realistic here +8.2% 56% -9.2%
15% -2.3% 55% -18.0%
20% -11.9% 55% -26.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +32% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +80% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized+$844
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses670 / 515
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1185 / 1787
History coverage19d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day144.3
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1185 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Down 49¢ 68¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 488 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
BNB Up or Down - April 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 4, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 11, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 3, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 4, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 7, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 4, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 5, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 5, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - March 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 10, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 8, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 4, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - March 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 4, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 5, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 5, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 4, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 4, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 4, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 5, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - April 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - March 30, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 3, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - March 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 3, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 3, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - March 22, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $0 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $0 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.42 · official $57.92 (match) · 3500 history records