Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:06:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
15 0x1513…831a sports 1061 markets active 2h ago coverage 293d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$872 (-1%) realized −$879 · open +$7
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate54%576W / 482L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$118per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Fees−$902est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$229now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$82
14 days−$1,092
30 days−$1,305
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% +$647
other 11% +$757
crypto 10% −$1,896
politics 7% −$1,546
world 2% +$681
economics 2% −$619
culture 0% +$182
tech 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 81 +19.1% +7.7% 57% 57% -7.2%
≤30d 216 +5.4% -4.6% 53% 52% -17.6%
≤90d 884 -4.7% -13.7% 55% 53% -9.3%
all 1058 -3.9% -13.1% 54% 52% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 52% -10.5%
10% -21.4% 48% -19.1%
15% -29.0% 38% -26.9%
20% -35.9% 29% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$67 vs −$84 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

293d coverage
Net worth$229
Realized−$879
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses576 / 482
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$902
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1058 / 1061
History coverage293d
Avg bet$118
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1058 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Egypt 33¢ 36¢ $121 $131 +$9 (+8%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Under 77¢ 76¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 159 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $50 +$80 +160%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $10 +$16 +154%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $72 +$30 +42%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $383 −$380 -99%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $212 −$210 -99%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $303 +$279 +92%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $86 +$112 +130%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $65 +$134 +206%
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings Jun 21 $101 −$73 -72%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $15 +$29 +188%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $55 +$49 +90%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 21 $33 +$22 +66%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros Jun 20 $30 −$12 -39%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5 Jun 20 $20 +$40 +197%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $41 −$14 -35%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $20 +$27 +134%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $16 −$16 -98%
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) Jun 20 $51 −$50 -99%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 20 $35 −$34 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $26 −$9 -36%
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Jun 20 $112 −$110 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $41 +$65 +158%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $116 +$29 +25%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $53 +$15 +29%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $72 +$42 +59%
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) Jun 19 $52 −$52 -99%
Valorant: X-CAST vs DRX Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season Jun 19 $61 +$53 +88%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $52 −$51 -99%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter Jun 19 $15 +$36 +238%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $37 −$37 -99%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $24 +$13 +52%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A Jun 19 $51 +$31 +60%
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs Dplus (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season Jun 19 $20 −$18 -86%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5 Jun 19 $61 +$63 +104%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by 9% or more? Jun 19 $101 +$58 +57%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $20 +$11 +55%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 19 $9 +$9 +101%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $20 +$15 +73%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $61 −$60 -98%
Spread: Canada (-5.5) Jun 19 $35 +$10 +27%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $70 +$20 +29%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $15 −$14 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $12 +$13 +114%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 −$14 -66%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $23 −$23 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY Egypt 33¢ $124 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $131 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 49¢ $39 2h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 77¢ $101 4h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $11 4h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 39¢ $10 5h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 70¢ $72 5h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 75¢ $383 11h
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 68¢ $212 11h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 85¢ $4 20h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 83¢ $5 20h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 82¢ $90 20h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5 SELL Under 100¢ $99 20h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 56¢ $5 21h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 56¢ $20 21h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) SELL Japan 84¢ $22 21h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 39¢ $61 21h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) SELL Japan 85¢ $59 21h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 42¢ $203 22h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 7.5 SELL Under 100¢ $200 22h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 45¢ $14 23h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 35¢ $20 23h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 27¢ $31 23h
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings SELL Dallas Wings 11¢ $19 23h
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings BUY Dallas Wings 55¢ $101 23h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $103 24h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 60¢ $27 24h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) SELL Curaçao 99¢ $28 24h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 56¢ $12 24h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $15 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $228.76 · official $228.76 (match) · 2861 history records