Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:41:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x1514…3aa0 crypto 981 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (117 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate57%564W / 417L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day117.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$43
7 days−$82
14 days−$49
30 days−$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (117 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 725 -6.7% -15.6% 61% 42% -12.1%
≤30d 981 -5.9% -14.8% 57% 43% -10.9%
≤90d 981 -5.9% -14.8% 57% 43% -10.9%
all 981 -5.9% -14.8% 57% 43% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover117.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.8% 43% -10.9%
10% ← realistic here -23.0% 36% -19.4%
15% -30.4% 35% -27.2%
20% -37.2% 35% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses564 / 417
Open positions0
Markets (closed)981 / 981
History coverage9d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day117.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 981 Trades
no open positions (381 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1629 history records