Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:08:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
15 0x1515…0c3f other 9 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$84 (+32%) realized +$85 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +17% what you keep after slip
Net edge+17%after slip
Net WR86%break-even
Win rate86%6W / 1L
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Kalshi-fit11%portable
Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% +$82
crypto 15% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +86%
net ROI/market (all)+21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +34.3% +21.5% 86% 86% +30.8%
≤30d 7 +34.3% +21.5% 86% 86% +30.8%
≤90d 7 +34.3% +21.5% 86% 86% +30.8%
all 7 +34.3% +21.5% 86% 86% +30.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +21.5% 86% +30.8%
10% +9.9% 71% +18.3%
15% -0.7% 71% +6.8%
20% -10.5% 57% -3.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 61% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +44% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +34% · $-wt +44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$6 · ×2.45 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×14.71 per $1 lost it wins $14.71
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$79
Realized+$85
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses6 / 1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)7 / 9
History coverage3d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit11%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $50 +$6 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $19 +$7 +38%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $30 +$19 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$10 +101%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $19 +$11 +57%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$35 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $41 14m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $40 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $50 9h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 79¢ $27 10h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 20h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $19 27h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 27h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 30h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 33h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $6 39h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $13 40h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $6 40h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $86 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.35 · official $79.35 (match) · 17 history records