Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:39:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x151b…a686 other 818 markets active 1h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$529 (-10%) realized −$529 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate23%185W / 628L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day16.3pace
Fees−$49est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$66
7 days−$83
14 days−$146
30 days−$295
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% −$55
other 40% −$508
crypto 3% −$5
world 2% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-24.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -66.6% -69.8% 12% 12% -43.6%
≤30d 201 -56.2% -60.4% 11% 10% -46.1%
≤90d 804 -19.4% -27.1% 22% 21% -18.4%
all 813 -16.6% -24.6% 23% 21% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.6% 21% -17.7%
10% -31.8% 19% -25.5%
15% -38.4% 17% -32.7%
20% -44.4% 16% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -37% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$3 · ×2.48 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$529
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses185 / 628
Est. fees paid−$49
Open positions5
Markets (closed)813 / 818
History coverage91d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day16.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 813 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? Yes 7¢ 25¢ $5 $18 +$13 (+256%)
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Yes 20¢ 24¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+20%)
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 1 New Zealand? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 424 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -25%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1 $0 -48%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $25 −$13 -51%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 −$2 -3%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -65%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -8%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $2 −$1 -46%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $12 +$16 +133%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -98%
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 3 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 3 Ecuador? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 3 Ecuador? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $3 −$3 -81%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Curaçao? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +52%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +13%
Exact Score: Australia 3 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 3 Türkiye? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $5 +$7 +132%
Exact Score: Qatar 2 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 3 - 3 Czechia? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 3 - 0 Czechia? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 3 Czechia? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 South Africa? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Hungary 3 - 2 Kazakhstan? Jun 09 $1 $0 -38%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Iceland? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $5 +$2 +39%
Exact Score: Peru 2 - 1 Spain? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 3 Colombia? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 0 Colombia? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 1 Colombia? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Kashima Antlers 2 - 3 Vissel Kōbe? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Kashima Antlers 1 - 2 Vissel Kōbe? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Kashima Antlers 0 - 3 Vissel Kōbe? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Kashima Antlers 0 - 1 Vissel Kōbe? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 1 New Zealand? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 48m
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 53m
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 54m
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 54m
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 54m
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 3 New Zealand? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 22¢ $12 1h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? SELL Yes 11¢ $7 1h
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 3 New Zealand? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 67¢ $49 5h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 5h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 Egypt? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 5h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 6h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 6h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 41¢ $9 6h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 6h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.84 · official $19.71 · 1559 history records