Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:39:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x151d…cb37 other 62 markets active 1h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$11 (+1%) realized +$13 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate67%28W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% −$27
politics 21% +$9
world 14% +$1
crypto 12% +$7
economics 9% −$1
finance 4% +$9
tech 4% +$1
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +5.4% -4.6% 75% 25% -6.7%
≤30d 8 +11.1% +0.5% 88% 50% -0.3%
≤90d 24 -6.0% -15.0% 75% 29% -9.9%
all 42 -3.0% -12.2% 67% 17% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 17% -9.3%
10% -20.6% 5% -18.0%
15% -28.3% 2% -25.9%
20% -35.3% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized+$13
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses28 / 14
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions20
Markets (closed)42 / 62
History coverage130d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-0%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 55¢ 48¢ $14 $12 −$2 (-14%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+15%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 42¢ 19¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-54%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 66¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+50%)
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 96¢ 96¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? No 81¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+20%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 94¢ 93¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 96¢ 95¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 91¢ 90¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 98¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will HSBC fail by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 100¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? No 37¢ 74¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+99%)
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 93¢ 91¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 22 $16 +$3 +16%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 22 $10 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 22 $14 +$1 +7%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $37 −$1 -4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? Jun 04 $18 +$5 +29%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 04 $15 +$3 +22%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 04 $13 +$2 +15%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 29 $3 $0 +1%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? May 19 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 19 $14 +$1 +6%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 19 $15 $0 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 11 $14 +$6 +39%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 04 $15 +$1 +6%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? May 04 $15 +$1 +8%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? Apr 27 $14 +$1 +7%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Apr 27 $27 +$3 +12%
USD.AI FDV above $500M one day after launch? Apr 21 $7 −$7 -100%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Apr 21 $16 $0 +2%
USD.AI FDV above $400M one day after launch? Apr 16 $10 −$10 -100%
USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 11 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 11 $19 +$1 +4%
Based FDV above $200M one day after launch? Apr 03 $20 +$2 +8%
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 03 $42 +$5 +12%
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch? Apr 01 $12 −$4 -37%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 20 $47 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026? Mar 20 $41 +$3 +7%
Will Hassan Rouhani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 11 $5 $0 +2%
Will Ali Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 11 $5 $0 +2%
Will Sadegh Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 11 $10 $0 +2%
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished? Mar 11 $10 $0 +4%
Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Mar 11 $10 $0 +4%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in February? Mar 05 $41 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in February? Mar 05 $25 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 05 $38 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? Mar 01 $19 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Mar 01 $36 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026? Mar 01 $29 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Mar 01 $53 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Feb 24 $44 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 20 Feb 16 $24 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 14 to February 16, 20 Feb 16 $25 $0 +0%
Ukraine election called by March 31, 2026? Feb 16 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $22 43m
Will HSBC fail by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $33 1h
Will HSBC fail by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $33 1h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 99¢ $33 1h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 100¢ $33 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $31 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 99¢ $32 1h
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $1 1h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $33 1h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $33 1h
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? SELL Yes 91¢ $6 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $27 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $7 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 44¢ $2 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 30¢ $0 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $4 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $20 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $15 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $5 1h
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? BUY Yes 90¢ $7 8d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 8d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $6 8d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $18 8d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $15 8d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 87¢ $6 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? SELL No 93¢ $9 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 81¢ $4 17d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 81¢ $5 17d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.75 · official $41.69 · 246 history records