Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:30:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
15 0x151e…58de sports 186 markets active 1h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5,249 (+10%) realized +$5,052 · open +$197
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate58%105W / 75L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$296per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$586est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$825now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$103
7 days+$366
14 days+$2,321
30 days+$3,057
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$5,055
other 8% −$251
crypto 1% +$156
politics 0% $0
world 0% +$6
finance 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +12.2% +1.5% 61% 61% +3.7%
≤30d 85 +2.6% -7.2% 65% 64% +5.6%
≤90d 172 -0.4% -9.9% 56% 53% -1.6%
all 180 +0.9% -8.7% 58% 56% -1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 56% -1.6%
10% -17.5% 51% -11.0%
15% -25.4% 42% -19.6%
20% -32.8% 28% -27.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$194 vs −$208 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$825
Realized+$5,052
Unrealized+$197
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses105 / 75
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$586
Open positions6
Markets (closed)180 / 186
History coverage97d
Avg bet$296
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 180 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 44¢ 99¢ $100 $225 +$125 (+125%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 84¢ 90¢ $200 $215 +$15 (+8%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 89¢ 92¢ $188 $194 +$6 (+3%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner G2 55¢ 100¢ $100 $180 +$80 (+80%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 33¢ 1¢ $30 $1 −$29 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 66 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $101 +$61 +60%
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 18 $256 +$166 +65%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $232 −$230 -99%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $152 +$81 +54%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $233 +$201 +86%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $143 −$140 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $81 −$80 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $123 +$30 +24%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $51 +$68 +134%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $20 +$13 +62%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $303 +$129 +43%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $193 −$190 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $96 +$105 +109%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $351 +$161 +46%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $51 +$121 +238%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $71 −$70 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +44%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $404 +$202 +50%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 11 $223 +$115 +51%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $551 +$353 +64%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $203 −$200 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $162 +$101 +62%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $253 −$250 -99%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $608 +$483 +79%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $335 +$97 +29%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $354 −$350 -99%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $304 +$196 +65%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $355 +$240 +68%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $2,403 +$718 +30%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $51 +$40 +79%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $202 +$92 +46%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $253 +$171 +67%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $303 +$179 +59%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $202 +$80 +40%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $254 −$250 -99%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $91 +$35 +38%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $212 +$66 +31%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 06 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $202 +$115 +57%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $91 −$90 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $81 +$26 +32%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $51 +$47 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 57¢ $71 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 52¢ $30 1h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY FURIA 49¢ $102 22h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 62¢ $101 25h
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY Aurora Gaming 60¢ $253 25h
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY Aurora Gaming 58¢ $3 25h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 72¢ $151 25h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 53¢ $81 25h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 69¢ $50 3d
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 62¢ $101 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 30¢ $102 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 57¢ $41 4d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 53¢ $233 4d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 53¢ $30 4d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 61¢ $51 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 80¢ $123 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 60¢ $101 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 41¢ $71 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 42¢ $31 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 25¢ $20 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 42¢ $20 4d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 69¢ $151 4d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 70¢ $151 4d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 51¢ $51 5d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 43¢ $25 5d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 38¢ $25 5d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 74¢ $242 5d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 58¢ $101 5d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 52¢ $8 5d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 61¢ $20 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $824.73 · official $824.73 (match) · 419 history records