Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:05:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
15 0x151f…5651 sports 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$30 (+5%) realized +$31 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$116now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% +$4
other 30% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.1% -9.4% 57% 57% -3.7%
≤30d 7 +0.1% -9.4% 57% 57% -3.7%
≤90d 7 +0.1% -9.4% 57% 57% -3.7%
all 7 +0.1% -9.4% 57% 57% -3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 57% -3.7%
10% -18.1% 57% -12.9%
15% -26.0% 57% -21.3%
20% -33.2% 43% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$57 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$116
Realized+$31
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage2d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $118 $116 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $56 −$55 -99%
Ghana to score first vs. Panama? Jun 18 $92 +$83 +90%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $47 +$45 +97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $70 +$46 +65%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $47 +$23 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $119 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $56 7h
Ghana to score first vs. Panama? BUY Yes 52¢ $92 12h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $92 12h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $47 13h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $101 17h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 19¢ $15 27h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $70 35h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $71 35h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $47 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $116.44 · official $116.44 (match) · 12 history records