Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:58:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x1522…8cd1 sports 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$99 (-19%) realized −$98 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%5W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$121now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days−$92
14 days−$105
30 days−$105
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$106
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-45.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -40.9% -46.5% 29% 29% -36.6%
≤30d 16 -39.4% -45.1% 31% 31% -32.7%
≤90d 16 -39.4% -45.1% 31% 31% -32.7%
all 16 -39.4% -45.1% 31% 31% -32.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -45.1% 31% -32.7%
10% -50.4% 31% -39.1%
15% -55.2% 31% -45.0%
20% -59.6% 25% -50.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 47% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -77% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$21 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$121
Realized−$98
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses5 / 11
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)16 / 18
History coverage8d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Texas Rangers 61¢ 60¢ $73 $73 −$1 (-1%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Milwaukee Brewers 60¢ 60¢ $49 $48 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 18 $17 +$23 +134%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $27 +$30 +109%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 17 $31 +$20 +65%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $26 +$21 +79%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $49 −$29 -60%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $40 −$40 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $63 +$27 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Milwaukee Brewers 60¢ $49 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 61¢ $74 2h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Cleveland Guardians 42¢ $17 26h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Los Angeles Angels 45¢ $25 28h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 47¢ $27 29h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 65¢ $23 2d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 60¢ $31 2d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 55¢ $26 4d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 48¢ $14 4d
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 35¢ $9 4d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 47¢ $17 4d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 48¢ $10 6d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 36¢ $8 6d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 51¢ $16 6d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 39¢ $8 6d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 57¢ $41 7d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Philadelphia Phillies 31¢ $10 7d
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Detroit Tigers 48¢ $25 7d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 42¢ $9 8d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Seattle Mariners 52¢ $40 8d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 59¢ $54 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $121.28 · official $121.28 (match) · 37 history records