Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:23:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x1522…70fe sports 350 markets active 1h ago coverage 46d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (50 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,755 (+5%) realized +$2,852 · open −$97
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate55%193W / 155L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$159per market
Trades / day50.1pace
Fees−$1,057est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$291
7 days−$6,811
14 days−$5,135
30 days−$664
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$2,465
world 1% −$419
economics 0% +$61
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (50 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 137 -51.6% -56.2% 22% 18% -38.3%
≤30d 280 -7.3% -16.1% 49% 41% -10.3%
≤90d 348 +3.5% -6.4% 55% 48% -5.4%
all 348 +3.5% -6.4% 55% 48% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.4% 48% -5.4%
10% ← realistic here -15.4% 40% -14.5%
15% -23.5% 32% -22.7%
20% -31.0% 27% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +42% → late -36% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$69 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,852
Unrealized−$97
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses193 / 155
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$1,057
Open positions2
Markets (closed)348 / 350
History coverage46d
Avg bet$159
Trades / day50.1
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 348 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner SPARTA 24¢ 0¢ $52 $0 −$51 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner INOX Division 61¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $542 +$167 +31%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 17 $239 −$25 -11%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $558 +$102 +18%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $468 +$131 +28%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $91 −$53 -58%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $253 +$54 +21%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Jun 16 $100 +$61 +60%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $102 +$66 +65%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $217 +$90 +42%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $393 −$388 -99%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $173 +$17 +10%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $399 +$77 +19%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $45 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $112 −$7 -6%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $744 +$63 +8%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $92 −$34 -37%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $72 +$13 +18%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $121 −$46 -38%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $22 −$22 -99%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $53 +$47 +89%
Counter-Strike: Nexus vs Alliance - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $87 +$58 +66%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Metizport - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $287 −$135 -47%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro Jun 14 $166 −$6 -4%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $134 −$15 -12%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $474 −$64 -13%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $511 −$23 -4%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $187 −$116 -62%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $145 +$96 +66%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $80 −$35 -44%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $217 −$57 -26%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $53 +$38 +72%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs BASEMENT BOYS - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $44 −$44 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $155 +$77 +50%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $63 −$30 -47%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $45 −$34 -76%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $73 −$5 -6%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Atreides - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Rebels Gaming vs HAVU - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $161 −$155 -96%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs RUSTEC - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $34 −$34 -100%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs fnatic - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $53 −$3 -6%
Counter-Strike: NIP vs FaZe - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $35 −$35 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $35 −$35 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A Jun 12 $56 −$56 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs Jun 12 $48 −$48 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Map Handicap: BIG (-1.5) vs NRG (+1.5) Jun 12 $46 −$46 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner BUY SPARTA 6¢ $1 40m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner BUY SPARTA 6¢ $4 40m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner BUY SPARTA 6¢ $1 40m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner BUY SPARTA 6¢ $0 40m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner BUY SPARTA 6¢ $0 41m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner BUY SPARTA 30¢ $4 48m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner BUY SPARTA 42¢ $42 56m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner SELL INOX Division 30¢ $28 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner SELL INOX Division 45¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner BUY INOX Division 52¢ $53 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner BUY INOX Division 61¢ $45 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner SELL INOX Division 58¢ $57 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner BUY INOX Division 59¢ $60 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo SELL Team Nemesis 82¢ $167 2h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY Team Nemesis 86¢ $45 2h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY Team Nemesis 83¢ $4 2h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY Team Nemesis 82¢ $66 2h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY Team Nemesis 80¢ $55 2h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo SELL TDK 20¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo SELL TDK 24¢ $44 2h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY TDK 25¢ $20 2h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY TDK 32¢ $16 2h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY TDK 46¢ $33 2h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 46¢ $47 3h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 63¢ $32 3h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 56¢ $11 3h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl SELL K27 57¢ $17 3h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl SELL K27 57¢ $6 3h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl SELL K27 57¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl SELL K27 57¢ $31 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.14 · official $0.14 (match) · 2553 history records