Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:42:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
15 0x1525…62dc politics 136 markets active 1h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,613 (-1%) realized −$1,613 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate19%26W / 110L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,296per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$15
14 days−$23
30 days−$155
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 52% −$94
other 27% −$36
sports 15% −$1,510
world 4% −$6
culture 2% −$4
tech 0% +$1
crypto 0% +$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 33 -4.6% -13.6% 12% 3% -9.8%
≤90d 70 -1.8% -11.1% 9% 3% -10.7%
all 136 +0.1% -9.5% 19% 12% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 12% -10.4%
10% -18.1% 12% -18.9%
15% -26.0% 11% -26.8%
20% -33.3% 11% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,970) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$24 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,613
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses26 / 110
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)136 / 136
History coverage134d
Avg bet$1,296
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 136 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 29 $1,572 −$2 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $3,644 −$4 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 24 $612 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 24 $2,781 −$3 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $549 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $2,790 −$3 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 22 $384 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $1,013 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $25 $0 +0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $737 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 17 $2,198 −$3 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $845 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $873 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $620 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $5,168 −$5 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $4,155 −$4 -0%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $312 +$1 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,907 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $1,818 −$2 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $3,428 −$4 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $8,129 −$5 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 08 $791 −$1 -0%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $59 +$31 +52%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $1,747 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $3,783 −$4 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,970 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $4,065 −$4 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 03 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $798 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $2,177 −$2 -0%
Will Solana reach $110 in May? Jun 02 $36 $0 +0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $986 −$1 -0%
Athletics vs. San Diego Padres May 31 $63 −$63 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs May 24 $44 +$56 +129%
Penguins vs. Flyers May 22 $1,386 −$1,386 -100%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 28 $2,444 −$2 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 28 $2,055 −$2 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 28 $1,324 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $1,317 −$1 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $1,251 −$1 -0%
Will Claudia López win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 25 $1,358 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 25 $1,335 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $2,538 −$3 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $1,320 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $1,210 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $1,133 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $1,075 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $2,764 −$3 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $2,412 −$2 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $1,054 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $495 1h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $495 4h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $554 4d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $555 4d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $611 4d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $612 5d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $349 5d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $349 5d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $548 5d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $549 6d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $370 6d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $370 6d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $384 6d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $384 7d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $274 9d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $274 9d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $736 11d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $737 11d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $832 11d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $833 11d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $844 12d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $845 12d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $872 13d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $873 13d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $619 13d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $620 14d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $879 14d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $880 14d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $466 14d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $466 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 478 history records