Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:23:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x1526…bad2 sports 16 markets active 5h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (84 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,795 (-22%) realized −$1,795 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%8W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$504per market
Trades / day84.3pace
Fees−$68est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$1,780
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (84 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-27.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -19.9% -27.5% 50% 50% -31.5%
≤30d 16 -19.9% -27.5% 50% 50% -31.5%
≤90d 16 -19.9% -27.5% 50% 50% -31.5%
all 16 -19.9% -27.5% 50% 50% -31.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover84.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.5% 50% -31.5%
10% ← realistic here -34.5% 38% -38.0%
15% -40.8% 31% -44.0%
20% -46.6% 25% -49.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 47% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$221 vs −$444 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,795
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses8 / 8
Est. fees paid−$68
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage1d
Avg bet$504
Trades / day84.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $746 +$242 +32%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $436 −$431 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $352 +$195 +56%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $13 +$5 +36%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $24 −$24 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1,339 +$257 +19%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $348 +$181 +52%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $428 +$538 +126%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $1,078 −$1,072 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $524 −$524 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $205 +$295 +144%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $359 +$58 +16%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $222 −$221 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $923 −$719 -78%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1,067 −$560 -52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 85¢ $364 5h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 85¢ $27 5h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 85¢ $211 5h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 44¢ $34 5h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 37¢ $17 5h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 37¢ $8 5h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 37¢ $10 5h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 37¢ $1 5h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 37¢ $1 5h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 70¢ $42 5h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 69¢ $30 5h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 48¢ $33 6h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $141 7h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $262 7h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 65¢ $68 8h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $2 8h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $7 8h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 63¢ $34 8h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 74¢ $36 8h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 70¢ $28 8h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 14¢ $1 9h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $21 9h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $104 9h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 73¢ $28 10h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 65¢ $24 10h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 88¢ $4 11h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $9 12h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 24¢ $24 13h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 88¢ $8 14h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 82¢ $2 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 121 history records