Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:25:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x1529…3219 crypto 1340 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 4d only
✗ bot/MM pace (572 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$53 (-3%) realized −$53 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -56% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -66% what you keep after slip
Net edge-66%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate16%181W / 961L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day571.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (572 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-60.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1142 -55.9% -60.1% 16% 3% -13.3%
≤30d 1142 -55.9% -60.1% 16% 3% -13.3%
≤90d 1142 -55.9% -60.1% 16% 3% -13.3%
all 1142 -55.9% -60.1% 16% 3% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover571.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -60.1% 3% -13.3%
10% ← realistic here -64.0% 1% -21.6%
15% -67.4% 1% -29.2%
20% -70.6% 1% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -56% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -45% → late -67% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$53
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses181 / 961
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1142 / 1340
History coverage5d ⚠
Avg bet$1
Trades / day571.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1142 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Down 87¢ 96¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+10%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Up 1¢ 4¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+350%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 498 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $4 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $4 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.22 · official $5.62 (match) · 3500 history records