Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:53:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x1529…775f other 83 markets active 2h ago coverage 448d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate42%34W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$77now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days−$7
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% −$7
other 29% +$2
politics 23% +$4
sports 10% −$3
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +4.7% -5.2% 44% 22% -9.4%
≤30d 25 +7.4% -2.9% 40% 12% -9.7%
≤90d 38 +4.5% -5.5% 32% 8% -9.6%
all 80 +0.2% -9.3% 42% 4% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 4% -9.6%
10% -18.0% 2% -18.2%
15% -25.9% 1% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

448d coverage
Net worth$77
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses34 / 46
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)80 / 83
History coverage448d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? No 96¢ 96¢ $77 $76 −$0 (-0%)
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? No 98¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 87¢ 90¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 24 $7 +$1 +12%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $12 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $87 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $2 +$1 +30%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $159 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $94 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $73 +$2 +2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $76 −$2 -2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $118 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $83 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $78 −$2 -3%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $86 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $78 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $16 −$6 -39%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 08 $168 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $258 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $128 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $10 $0 +2%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $84 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $83 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $171 +$1 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $83 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 29 $2 +$4 +182%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 29 $87 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $107 −$1 -1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $24 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 23 $108 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $3 $0 -15%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $312 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in April 2026? Apr 25 $24 −$1 -4%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 20 $37 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 19 $741 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $75 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 18 $34 −$1 -4%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $569 −$3 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 17 $573 +$3 +0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 17 $16 +$1 +8%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $36 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $1 $0 +3%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? Jun 05 $27 $0 +0%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jun 04 $27 $0 -0%
Will Chan Santokhi be the next president of Suriname after the electio Jun 03 $7 $0 +1%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 03 $27 $0 +0%
Will Tyrese Haliburton Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 02 $7 $0 -1%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 02 $7 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? May 31 $27 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? May 29 $27 $0 +1%
Will Gonzalo Winter win the Chilean presidential election? May 26 $26 $0 +0%
Will Virgil van Dijk win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 26 $27 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $500-750b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 May 25 $77 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $77 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $8 19h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 21h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 21h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 21h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $12 33h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $12 35h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 40h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 40h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 41h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 4d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $75 4d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $75 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $75 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $75 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $75 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $73 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $15 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $19 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $74 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $76 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $83 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $83 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $41 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $10 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $25 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $76 6d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $84 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.97 · official $76.64 (match) · 265 history records