trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 13 | +12.4% | +1.7% | 62% | 46% | -6.5% |
| ≤30d | 23 | +3.0% | -6.8% | 61% | 48% | -6.2% |
| ≤90d | 23 | +3.0% | -6.8% | 61% | 48% | -6.2% |
| all | 23 | +3.0% | -6.8% | 61% | 48% | -6.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -6.8% | 48% | -6.2% |
| 10% | -15.7% | 39% | -15.2% |
| 15% | -23.9% | 26% | -23.4% |
| 20% | -31.3% | 17% | -30.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 54¢ | 95¢ | $108 | $190 | +$82 (+76%) |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? | No | 83¢ | 99¢ | $108 | $129 | +$21 (+19%) |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | No | 62¢ | 62¢ | $125 | $125 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? | No | 80¢ | 80¢ | $104 | $104 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | No | 58¢ | 52¢ | $40 | $36 | −$4 (-9%) |
| UK Recession in 2026? | No | 69¢ | 57¢ | $30 | $25 | −$5 (-17%) |
| SPLC found guilty in 2026? | No | 33¢ | 52¢ | $15 | $24 | +$8 (+56%) |
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? | No | 41¢ | 40¢ | $20 | $20 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Will Trump cut long term capital gains tax before 2027? | No | 74¢ | 60¢ | $15 | $12 | −$3 (-18%) |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | No | 54¢ | 56¢ | $10 | $10 | +$0 (+5%) |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? | No | 47¢ | 68¢ | $0 | $0 | +$0 (+42%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? | Jun 14 | $509 | +$10 | +2% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? | Jun 12 | $303 | +$154 | +51% |
| Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 11? | Jun 11 | $5 | +$5 | +96% |
| Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on June 11? | Jun 11 | $5 | +$3 | +52% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | Jun 11 | $106 | −$21 | -20% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Jun 11 | $329 | −$85 | -26% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? | Jun 11 | $21 | −$21 | -98% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? | Jun 11 | $100 | −$2 | -2% |
| Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 10? | Jun 10 | $5 | +$3 | +56% |
| Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 10? | Jun 10 | $10 | +$2 | +18% |
| U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31? | Jun 09 | $30 | +$1 | +4% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 09 | $30 | +$9 | +30% |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | Jun 09 | $292 | $0 | -0% |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Jun 05 | $21 | −$4 | -22% |
| Trump approval Up or Down this week? | Jun 03 | $7 | −$7 | -100% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Jun 01 | $73 | +$35 | +48% |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? | May 30 | $5 | +$2 | +42% |
| Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? | May 25 | $20 | +$6 | +28% |
| Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on May 19? | May 19 | $143 | −$12 | -8% |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 19? | May 18 | $20 | −$20 | -98% |
| SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 18? | May 18 | $30 | +$4 | +14% |
| Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on May 18? | May 18 | $127 | +$6 | +5% |
| Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on May 18? | May 18 | $31 | +$10 | +31% |