Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T06:37:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x152e…b581 weather 947 markets active 2h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$24 (-0%) realized −$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate73%729W / 272L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day24.3pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$185now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 94% −$761
other 5% −$5
politics 1% −$55
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-22.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -92.8% -93.5% 0% 0% -18.3%
≤30d 13 -92.8% -93.5% 0% 0% -18.3%
≤90d 951 -14.4% -22.5% 71% 7% -25.1%
all 951 -14.4% -22.5% 71% 7% -25.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.5% 7% -25.1%
10% ← realistic here -29.9% 1% -32.3%
15% -36.7% 1% -38.8%
20% -42.9% 1% -44.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$185
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses729 / 272
Open positions6
Markets (closed)1001 / 947
History coverage89d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day24.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 1001 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? No 59¢ 56¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-5%)
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? No 40¢ 43¢ $10 $10 +$1 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 95 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 22°C or below on April 26? Jun 26 $0 $0 —%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 47°C on April 26? Jun 26 $0 $0 —%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 34°C on April 25? Jun 26 $0 $0 —%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C or below on April 27? Jun 26 $0 $0 —%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 28°C or below on April 25? Jun 26 $0 $0 —%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on April 28? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C or below on April 26? Jun 26 $0 $0 —%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on April 25? Jun 26 $0 $0 —%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on April 24 Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C or below on April 25 Jun 26 $0 $0 —%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on April 24 Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 26°C or below on April 25? Jun 26 $0 $0 —%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 28°C on April 25? Jun 26 $0 $0 —%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on April 27? Jun 26 $0 $0 —%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on April 28? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 49°C on April 26? Jun 26 $0 $0 —%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on April 24 Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 17°C on April 25? Jun 26 $0 $0 —%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on April 27? Jun 26 $0 $0 —%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on April 25? Jun 26 $0 $0 —%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 19°C on April 25? Jun 26 $0 $0 —%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 30°C on April 25? Jun 26 $0 $0 —%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 50°C on April 26? Jun 26 $0 $0 —%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 48°C on April 26? Jun 26 $0 $0 —%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on April 24 Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 29°C on April 25? Jun 26 $0 $0 —%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on April 24 Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 31°C on April 25? Jun 26 $0 $0 —%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on April 25? Jun 26 $0 $0 —%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 45°C on April 26? Jun 26 $0 $0 —%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C or below on April 25? Jun 26 $0 $0 —%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C or below on April 28? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 33°C on April 25? Jun 26 $0 $0 —%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 25? Jun 26 $0 $0 —%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 16°C on April 25? Jun 26 $0 $0 —%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 32°C on April 25? Jun 26 $0 $0 —%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 46°C on April 26? Jun 26 $0 $0 —%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on April 25? Jun 26 $0 $0 —%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 15°C or below on April 25? Jun 26 $0 $0 —%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 47°F or below on April 24? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on April 28? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on April 25? Jun 26 $0 $0 —%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on April 25? Jun 26 $0 $0 —%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 25? Jun 26 $0 $0 —%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 20°C on April 25? Jun 26 $0 $0 —%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on April 27? Jun 26 $0 $0 —%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on April 28? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 27°C on April 25? Jun 26 $0 $0 —%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 29°C on April 25? Jun 26 $0 $0 —%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 18°C on April 25? Jun 26 $0 $0 —%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $38 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $41 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $41 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $41 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $41 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $41 1h
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? BUY No 40¢ $10 41d
Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? BUY No 59¢ $14 41d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $9 42d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 42d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $10 42d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? SELL No 40¢ $4 42d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 42d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $10 42d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $10 42d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 41¢ $4 42d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? SELL No 65¢ $30 42d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $32 42d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 16°C on May 15? SELL No 80¢ $4 42d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on May 15? SELL No 78¢ $5 42d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on May 15? SELL No 43¢ $3 42d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on May 15? BUY No 44¢ $3 42d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on May 15? BUY No 77¢ $5 42d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 16°C on May 15? BUY No 83¢ $5 42d
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026? BUY No 54¢ $4 45d
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026? BUY No 46¢ $15 45d
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026? BUY No 53¢ $15 45d
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026? BUY No 53¢ $10 45d
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026? BUY No 46¢ $10 45d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on April 27? BUY No 48¢ $2 60d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $184.54 · official $184.55 (match) · 3306 history records