trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 1 | +0.1% | -9.4% | 100% | 0% | -9.4% |
| ≤90d | 24 | +5.5% | -4.6% | 67% | 4% | -9.6% |
| all | 24 | +5.5% | -4.6% | 67% | 4% | -9.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -4.6% | 4% | -9.6% |
| 10% | -13.7% | 4% | -18.2% |
| 15% | -22.0% | 4% | -26.1% |
| 20% | -29.7% | 4% | -33.4% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 15? | No | 100¢ | 99¢ | $2 | $2 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Amazon (AMZN) close at >$265 on the final day of trading of the week of Jun 15 – Jun 19? | No | 98¢ | 76¢ | $2 | $1 | −$0 (-22%) |
| Will Netflix (NFLX) close at <$40 on the final day of trading of the week of Jun 15 – Jun 19? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Google (GOOGL) close at >$380 on the final day of trading of the week of Jun 15 – Jun 19? | No | 98¢ | 68¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-31%) |
| Will Micron (MU) close at >$1,080 on the final day of trading of the week of Jun 15 – Jun 19? | No | 97¢ | 73¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-25%) |
| Will Tesla (TSLA) close at <$375 on the final day of trading of the week of Jun 15 – Jun 19? | No | 98¢ | 74¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-24%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 15? | May 16 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C or below on May 15? | May 15 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on May 15? | May 15 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will CZ post 20-39 posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026? | May 15 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? | May 15 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m | May 15 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $440 on April 21? | Apr 23 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $420 on April 21? | Apr 23 | $1 | $0 | +3% |
| Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on April 21? | Apr 23 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Apple (AAPL) close above $260 on April 21? | Apr 23 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 20? | Mar 22 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 20? | Mar 22 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? | Mar 22 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on March 20? | Mar 20 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | Mar 20 | $911 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? | Mar 20 | $915 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Mar 20 | $869 | −$1 | -0% |
| Solana Up or Down - March 20, 1AM ET | Mar 20 | $2 | $0 | +6% |
| Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Mar 20 | $878 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will the Nashville Predators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | Mar 20 | $898 | −$1 | -0% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET | Mar 20 | $2 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Trump issue a Gold Card by March 31? | Mar 20 | $884 | −$2 | -0% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET | Mar 20 | $1 | +$3 | +313% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET | Mar 20 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |