Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:53:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x152f…b926 politics 190 markets active 1h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,512 (-1%) realized −$2,512 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate19%36W / 152L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,783per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$40est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$437now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$27
14 days+$60
30 days−$228
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% −$163
other 30% +$94
sports 17% −$2,448
world 4% −$11
economics 4% −$12
culture 3% −$10
tech 2% −$6
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 58 -3.4% -12.6% 9% 5% -9.7%
≤90d 123 -6.7% -15.6% 7% 4% -10.7%
all 188 +4.7% -5.2% 19% 11% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.2% 11% -10.2%
10% -14.3% 10% -18.8%
15% -22.6% 10% -26.7%
20% -30.2% 10% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,457) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +12% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$24 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$437
Realized−$2,512
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses36 / 152
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions2
Markets (closed)188 / 190
History coverage140d
Avg bet$1,783
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 188 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $262 $262 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $175 $175 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $1,224 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $785 −$1 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $812 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $1,791 −$3 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $2,032 −$3 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $873 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $2,243 −$3 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 14 $3,126 −$4 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $2,162 −$2 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $924 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $3,621 −$5 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $2,876 −$3 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $3,150 −$4 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 09 $675 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $6,709 −$7 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $2,716 −$3 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 08 $863 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $5,179 −$6 -0%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $66 +$64 +97%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $4,280 −$5 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $906 −$1 -0%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 05 $71 +$56 +79%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 04 $775 −$1 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 03 $2,081 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $825 −$1 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $48 +$64 +134%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $5,912 −$6 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $2,620 −$3 -0%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 02 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? Jun 02 $221 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.60 in May? Jun 02 $487 $0 +0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $790 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $2,338 −$3 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 01 $1,924 −$2 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $307 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $4,567 −$5 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $321 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $314 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $2,940 −$3 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $3,187 −$3 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $308 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $3,106 −$4 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $3,596 −$4 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $4,958 −$6 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 27 $290 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $2,995 −$4 -0%
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs May 25 $71 −$71 -100%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $2,349 −$3 -0%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 24 $46 −$46 -100%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $6,954 −$8 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $262 1h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $811 17h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $812 18h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $784 18h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $785 20h
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $811 21h
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $812 24h
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $851 42h
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $852 44h
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $826 44h
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $827 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $872 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $873 2d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $813 2d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $814 3d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $529 3d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $530 3d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $863 5d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $864 6d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $923 6d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $924 6d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $863 6d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $865 7d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $905 7d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $906 7d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $818 7d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $819 8d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $674 8d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $675 8d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $918 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $436.88 · official $436.88 (match) · 740 history records