Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T18:08:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
15 0x1532…1c0d sports 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$70 (-45%) realized −$70 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% +$8
sports 46% $0
other 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +4.5% -5.5% 75% 25% -0.9%
≤30d 4 +4.5% -5.5% 75% 25% -0.9%
≤90d 4 +4.5% -5.5% 75% 25% -0.9%
all 4 +4.5% -5.5% 75% 25% -0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.5% 25% -0.9%
10% -14.5% 0% -10.3%
15% -22.8% 0% -19.0%
20% -30.4% 0% -26.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% too few recent
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$0 · ×10.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×30.46 per $1 lost it wins $30.46
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$70
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 7
History coverage5d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 4 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 26 $40 +$6 +14%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 26 $40 +$3 +7%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Jun 23 $4 $0 -7%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $40 57m
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $40 1h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Athletics 51¢ $10 42h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Athletics 51¢ $10 42h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Athletics 51¢ $10 42h
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 45¢ $10 45h
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 45¢ $10 45h
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 45¢ $10 45h
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? SELL No 50¢ $4 3d
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? BUY No 51¢ $3 3d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Henrique Rocha vs Nicolas Mejia BUY Henrique Rocha 71¢ $10 4d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 96¢ $1 5d
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? BUY No 51¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 16 history records