Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:51:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x1533…b16e sports 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$40 (-14%) realized −$45 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%4W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$163now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days−$7
14 days−$9
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% +$5
sports 23% +$11
crypto 7% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -7.5% -16.3% 40% 40% -16.3%
≤30d 11 -7.7% -16.4% 36% 36% -16.7%
≤90d 11 -7.7% -16.4% 36% 36% -16.7%
all 11 -7.7% -16.4% 36% 36% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 36% -16.7%
10% -24.4% 36% -24.7%
15% -31.7% 27% -31.9%
20% -38.4% 27% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 79% · top 2 92% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$9 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$163
Realized−$45
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses4 / 7
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)11 / 16
History coverage8d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $37 $68 +$31 (+83%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $30 $33 +$3 (+9%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 7¢ $48 $26 −$22 (-45%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-9%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $22 $17 −$6 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $12 +$41 +339%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $2 +$2 +92%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -94%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +24%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$6 +64%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 −$2 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $53 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 37¢ $4 3h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 3h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 3h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 5h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 5h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 5h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $9 5h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 27h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 28h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $11 39h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $5 4d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $2 4d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $31 5d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $10 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 5d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $7 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 7d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 22¢ $19 7d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 23¢ $21 7d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $39 7d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $49 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $162.67 · official $162.67 (match) · 40 history records