Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:51:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
15 0x1533…3141 other 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$758 (+15%) realized +$758 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate71%12W / 5L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$295per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$433
7 days+$687
14 days+$691
30 days+$691
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% +$366
sports 20% +$325
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +28.3% +16.0% 69% 50% +2.9%
≤30d 17 +29.3% +17.0% 71% 53% +2.9%
≤90d 17 +29.3% +17.0% 71% 53% +2.9%
all 17 +29.3% +17.0% 71% 53% +2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +17.0% 53% +2.9%
10% +5.8% 47% -6.9%
15% -4.5% 41% -15.9%
20% -13.8% 35% -24.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 61% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late +40% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$137 vs −$192 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.72 per $1 lost it wins $1.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$758
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses12 / 5
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage7d
Avg bet$295
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 29 $501 +$476 +95%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $508 −$500 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $10 +$18 +175%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $466 +$526 +113%
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 29 $102 +$20 +20%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $228 +$219 +96%
Counter-Strike: Spirit Academy vs Omega (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar Closed Jun 28 $400 −$172 -43%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $403 −$3 -1%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $371 +$32 +9%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $299 +$72 +24%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $553 −$255 -46%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $527 +$27 +5%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $310 +$217 +70%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $289 +$22 +8%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $29 −$29 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $13 +$17 +128%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $9 +$4 +45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $978 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $501 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 45¢ $508 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 26¢ $28 2h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $992 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 43¢ $317 5h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 41¢ $122 5h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $102 6h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 55¢ $149 6h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 100¢ $447 26h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 42¢ $98 27h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 59¢ $131 34h
Counter-Strike: Spirit Academy vs Omega (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar Closed SELL Spirit Academy 37¢ $228 37h
Counter-Strike: Spirit Academy vs Omega (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar Closed BUY Spirit Academy 64¢ $400 38h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 62¢ $400 44h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 61¢ $403 45h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 94¢ $403 45h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $371 45h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $371 46h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 80¢ $299 46h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 29¢ $298 46h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $553 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 90¢ $554 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $527 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $526 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $310 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 94¢ $310 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 87¢ $289 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $29 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 35 history records