Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:20:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x1536…7f40 sports 234 markets active 1h ago coverage 59d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$676 (+6%) realized +$482 · open +$194
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate51%103W / 100L
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Fees−$98est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$1,579now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$192
7 days+$168
14 days+$133
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% +$131
other 22% +$98
world 16% +$211
politics 4% +$72
culture 3% +$101
tech 1% +$3
finance 0% +$24
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +6.8% -3.4% 56% 44% +0.8%
≤30d 105 -6.1% -15.0% 47% 37% -10.1%
≤90d 203 -1.3% -10.7% 51% 42% -5.4%
all 203 -1.3% -10.7% 51% 42% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 42% -5.4%
10% -19.2% 41% -14.4%
15% -27.0% 37% -22.7%
20% -34.2% 33% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$29 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$1,579
Realized+$482
Unrealized+$194
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses103 / 100
Est. fees paid−$98
Open positions31
Markets (closed)203 / 234
History coverage59d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 31 History 203 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 88¢ $66 $94 +$27 (+41%)
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 49¢ 74¢ $58 $87 +$29 (+50%)
Will Austria reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 62¢ 72¢ $73 $84 +$11 (+15%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 44¢ 60¢ $59 $81 +$22 (+37%)
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30? No 67¢ 90¢ $59 $80 +$21 (+35%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June? No 40¢ 74¢ $42 $78 +$36 (+86%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 65¢ 68¢ $74 $77 +$3 (+4%)
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 42¢ 62¢ $50 $74 +$23 (+46%)
Will Portugal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 66¢ 75¢ $65 $73 +$9 (+14%)
Will Ecuador reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 57¢ 90¢ $46 $73 +$27 (+58%)
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 58¢ 56¢ $75 $72 −$3 (-4%)
Will England reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 58¢ 62¢ $60 $63 +$4 (+6%)
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 65¢ 90¢ $45 $62 +$18 (+39%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 49¢ 76¢ $38 $59 +$21 (+54%)
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 55¢ 55¢ $54 $54 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 66¢ 62¢ $57 $53 −$3 (-6%)
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 55¢ 50¢ $57 $51 −$6 (-10%)
Will Croatia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 57¢ 66¢ $43 $50 +$6 (+15%)
Spread: France (-2.5) France 55¢ 55¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 39¢ 40¢ $46 $47 +$1 (+3%)
Will Colombia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 48¢ 42¢ $50 $44 −$7 (-14%)
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Yes 35¢ 42¢ $34 $41 +$7 (+21%)
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 46¢ 34¢ $46 $34 −$11 (-25%)
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Algeria 37¢ 36¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30? Yes 50¢ 34¢ $29 $19 −$10 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 63 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $41 +$14 +34%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 22 $25 +$44 +172%
Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 21 $10 +$6 +57%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $51 +$49 +97%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $46 +$23 +50%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $35 +$54 +152%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Turkiye reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $55 +$47 +85%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $83 +$32 +38%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tatjana Maria Jun 19 $37 −$36 -98%
Will Gold (GC) settle at $3,800-$4,200 in June? Jun 19 $30 +$2 +6%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $19 +$21 +109%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $87 +$61 +70%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $10 +$9 +86%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 Jun 18 $11 +$9 +90%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 18 $47 −$12 -26%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 177.5 Jun 18 $51 +$51 +101%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 18 $32 −$11 -34%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $65 +$84 +129%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $60 −$59 -99%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 17 $54 −$3 -6%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $73 +$3 +4%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$2 -96%
Bu vs. Virtanen: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 16 $39 $0 +0%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $61 +$34 +57%
Figueira Da Foz: Katarina Kuzmova vs Viktoria Morvayova Jun 16 $54 +$46 +86%
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston Jun 15 $83 −$83 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 15 $31 −$30 -99%
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $23 +$2 +7%
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $27 −$2 -8%
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 15 $46 −$5 -11%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $68 −$67 -99%
Jack Pinnington Jones vs. Denis Shapovalov: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $65 −$64 -99%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $23 +$27 +119%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $41 +$27 +65%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $70 −$69 -98%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 14 $60 −$31 -51%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $56 −$31 -55%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $16 +$21 +134%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $31 +$61 +197%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 12 $28 −$8 -30%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 12 $38 −$12 -30%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 12 $25 −$24 -98%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $53 +$38 +71%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $58 −$57 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $29 −$29 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $38 −$1 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Algeria 37¢ $25 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 55¢ $51 1h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY Egypt 36¢ $25 8h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $25 8h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 38¢ $15 8h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 39¢ $16 8h
Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx BUY Minnesota Lynx 87¢ $10 9h
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) BUY Washington Nationals 63¢ $10 11h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 96¢ $100 11h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 41¢ $25 27h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 48¢ $51 27h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 39¢ $35 29h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 40¢ $10 47h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys BUY Madison Keys 41¢ $1 2d
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys BUY Madison Keys 41¢ $1 2d
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tatjana Maria BUY Tatjana Maria 41¢ $37 2d
Will Gold (GC) settle at $3,800-$4,200 in June? SELL Yes 46¢ $32 2d
Will England reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 58¢ $60 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $19 3d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $77 3d
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 52¢ $11 3d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $10 3d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 53¢ $10 3d
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL No 31¢ $35 3d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 25¢ $21 3d
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 41¢ $34 4d
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 41¢ $7 4d
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 41¢ $3 4d
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 41¢ $3 4d
Will Croatia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 57¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,578.56 · official $1,578.57 (match) · 554 history records