Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:46:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

15
0x1537…0218
crypto · 1250 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$302 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$332 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$15
Realized−$332
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses613 / 732
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1345 / 1250
History coverage22d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day121.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 1345 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$578
7 days−$466
14 days−$443
30 days−$332
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Down 57¢ 48¢ $17 $15 −$3 (-16%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Up 91¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+10%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Down 47¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+113%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 23, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Up 39¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Up 58¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Up 84¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 25, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 23, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Down 75¢ 0¢ $37 $0 −$37 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Down 66¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 21, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 21, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 22, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 20, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 20, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 22, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 21, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 22, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 21, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 22, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 21, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 20, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 20, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$231
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 50m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 51m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 51m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 51m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 53m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 53m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 53m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 54m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 57m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 57m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 368 -60.1% -63.9% 23% 22% -23.5%
≤30d 1345 -10.8% -19.3% 46% 43% -13.6%
≤90d 1345 -10.8% -19.3% 46% 43% -13.6%
all 1345 -10.8% -19.3% 46% 43% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover121.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.3% 43% -13.6%
10% ← realistic here -27.0% 37% -21.9%
15% -34.0% 32% -29.4%
20% -40.5% 26% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.06 · official $14.70 (match) · 3500 history records