Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:54:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
15 0x153a…af29 sports 73 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$140 (+8%) realized +$140 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate58%42W / 31L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day13.9pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$65
14 days+$142
30 days+$142
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% +$118
other 46% +$13
world 4% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +5.7% -4.4% 58% 48% -4.3%
≤30d 73 +13.4% +2.6% 58% 51% -1.9%
≤90d 73 +13.4% +2.6% 58% 51% -1.9%
all 73 +13.4% +2.6% 58% 51% -1.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.6% 51% -1.9%
10% -7.2% 36% -11.3%
15% -16.2% 22% -19.9%
20% -24.4% 16% -27.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$6 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.76 per $1 lost it wins $1.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$140
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses42 / 31
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)73 / 73
History coverage12d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day13.9
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 73 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $35 $0 -1%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $36 −$1 -4%
Croatia leading at halftime? Jun 17 $19 +$19 +102%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $36 +$12 +34%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $36 +$11 +31%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $35 +$5 +13%
Algeria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $36 −$34 -96%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $36 +$5 +14%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $25 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $36 −$1 -2%
IR Iran leading at halftime? Jun 16 $35 +$12 +33%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $36 +$7 +20%
CD Universidad Católica vs. CD Universidad de Concepción: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $36 +$13 +35%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $36 −$35 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $36 +$31 +86%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $49 +$34 +70%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $20 +$7 +34%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $36 +$3 +9%
Thor Akureyri vs. IBV Vestmannaeyjar: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $33 +$8 +26%
Will Thor Akureyri win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $35 +$7 +19%
Will IR Tanger win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $34 +$7 +20%
Will Egersunds IK win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $36 −$3 -7%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $36 −$6 -16%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $36 −$1 -2%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $36 −$13 -35%
Spread: Australia (-2.5) Jun 14 $36 −$13 -36%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $36 −$1 -4%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $35 +$4 +10%
Spread: CD Ñublense (-1.5) Jun 14 $36 $0 +1%
Will CD Huachipato win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $36 +$11 +29%
Audax CS Italiano vs. CD La Serena: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $35 −$3 -8%
Will Difaâ Hassani El Jadida win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $36 +$6 +18%
Will Grêmio Novorizontino win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $16 −$1 -5%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $15 +$2 +11%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 Nigeria? Jun 10 $15 −$1 -9%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 10 $31 +$11 +37%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 10 $1 +$1 +70%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $16 +$4 +28%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 10 $16 −$16 -100%
Exact Score: Armenia 0 - 0 Moldova? Jun 10 $2 +$3 +146%
Kosovo vs. Andorra: Draw at halftime? Jun 10 $4 +$6 +152%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Northern Ireland? Jun 10 $16 +$4 +29%
Will IFK Norrkoping FK win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $9 +$6 +68%
Spread: Greece (-2.5) Jun 09 $9 −$2 -29%
Georgia vs. Greece: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $16 +$1 +9%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 09 $10 +$8 +86%
Will Norway vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 09 $16 +$3 +20%
Georgia vs. Greece: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $16 −$1 -9%
Norway vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $15 +$8 +54%
Indonesia vs. Mozambique: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $16 −$1 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 82¢ $35 35m
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? SELL No 76¢ $34 35m
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? BUY No 78¢ $36 35m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 82¢ $35 35m
Croatia leading at halftime? SELL Yes 6¢ $37 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL Croatia 75¢ $48 1h
Croatia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 3¢ $19 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 55¢ $36 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL DR Congo 68¢ $7 4h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL DR Congo 68¢ $40 4h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 51¢ $36 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 89¢ $40 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 78¢ $35 4h
Algeria leading at halftime? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 20h
Algeria leading at halftime? BUY Yes 32¢ $36 20h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL No 91¢ $41 23h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $36 23h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY No 15¢ $25 24h
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? SELL No 76¢ $35 44h
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? BUY No 77¢ $36 44h
IR Iran leading at halftime? SELL No 85¢ $10 44h
IR Iran leading at halftime? SELL No 85¢ $2 44h
IR Iran leading at halftime? SELL No 85¢ $9 44h
IR Iran leading at halftime? SELL No 85¢ $20 44h
IR Iran leading at halftime? SELL No 85¢ $7 44h
IR Iran leading at halftime? BUY No 63¢ $35 44h
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? BUY No 83¢ $36 2d
CD Universidad Católica vs. CD Universidad de Concepción: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 51¢ $48 2d
CD Universidad Católica vs. CD Universidad de Concepción: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 36¢ $36 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 0¢ $36 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 171 history records