Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:03:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
15 0x153b…5c47 sports 14 markets active 22h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$33 (+14%) realized +$33 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate64%9W / 5L
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$18
14 days+$30
30 days+$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$1
sports 43% +$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +5.7% -4.4% 62% 62% +6.8%
≤30d 14 +9.3% -1.1% 64% 64% +10.2%
≤90d 14 +9.3% -1.1% 64% 64% +10.2%
all 14 +9.3% -1.1% 64% 64% +10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.1% 64% +10.2%
10% -10.6% 64% -0.3%
15% -19.2% 43% -10.0%
20% -27.1% 43% -18.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$11 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$33
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses9 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage8d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $11 +$10 +93%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $6 +$5 +75%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $11 −$11 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $15 +$12 +78%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $40 +$14 +34%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $19 −$13 -67%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $19 +$13 +66%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$5 -51%
United States to score first vs. Paraguay? Jun 13 $10 +$8 +76%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $21 −$16 -74%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $15 +$5 +33%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $21 +$7 +35%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $20 +$11 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $0 22h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 96¢ $21 22h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 49¢ $11 22h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 92¢ $11 25h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 52¢ $6 25h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over $0 25h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $11 26h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $0 45h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $27 45h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $15 47h
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL Yes 97¢ $25 2d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 74¢ $19 2d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL Yes 47¢ $18 2d
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL Yes 26¢ $6 2d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 2d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL Yes 10¢ $11 2d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes $10 2d
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 77¢ $19 2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $32 2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 59¢ $19 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 30¢ $5 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 2d
United States to score first vs. Paraguay? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 3d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 82¢ $10 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 4d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $0 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 4d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 99¢ $20 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 37 history records