Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:23:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x153b…4567 crypto 26 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$77 (-7%) realized −$77 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +19% what you keep after slip
Net edge+19%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%10W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$135
7 days−$237
14 days−$154
30 days−$216
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$46
crypto 48% −$135
sports 3% −$30
finance 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +36.2% +23.2% 35% 35% -35.8%
≤30d 26 +31.5% +19.0% 38% 38% -28.0%
≤90d 26 +31.5% +19.0% 38% 38% -28.0%
all 26 +31.5% +19.0% 38% 38% -28.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +19.0% 38% -28.0%
10% +7.6% 38% -34.9%
15% -2.8% 35% -41.2%
20% -12.3% 27% -47.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +132% → late -69% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$37 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$77
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses10 / 16
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage22d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 23 $21 −$17 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 23 $37 −$35 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 23 $37 −$35 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 23 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 23 $85 −$80 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 23 $105 −$13 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$33 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$10 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 23 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 23 $52 +$44 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$78 +1464%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 23 $11 +$5 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$18 +340%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $102 +$58 +57%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $41 +$55 +134%
Will Accenture (ACN) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $181 −$180 -99%
Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzer Jun 16 $61 +$18 +30%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 16 $115 +$65 +56%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 01 $63 −$62 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Down 13¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $26 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 32m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $26 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $27 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $26 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $26 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $26 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $83 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $26 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $26 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $26 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $59 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $26 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 58 history records