trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 68¢ | 68¢ | $14 | $14 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? | Yes | 94¢ | 94¢ | $5 | $5 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? | Jun 14 | $6 | $0 | +6% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5AM ET | Jun 14 | $10 | $0 | +3% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET | Jun 14 | $5 | $0 | +1% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET | Jun 14 | $2 | +$1 | +24% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? | Jun 13 | $19 | −$15 | -78% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? | Jun 12 | $12 | $0 | +3% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | Jun 12 | $9 | $0 | +4% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET | Jun 12 | $1 | $0 | +24% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? | Jun 12 | $8 | $0 | +2% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on June 6? | Jun 05 | $1 | $0 | +6% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on June 5? | Jun 05 | $13 | +$1 | +4% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | Jun 05 | $24 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 4? | Jun 05 | $5 | $0 | +4% |
| Solana Up or Down on June 4? | Jun 04 | $5 | $0 | +6% |
| BNB Up or Down on June 4? | Jun 04 | $5 | $0 | +3% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET | Jun 04 | $10 | +$1 | +10% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on June 4? | Jun 04 | $15 | −$1 | -5% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET | Jun 04 | $1 | $0 | +31% |
| Ethereum Up or Down on June 4? | Jun 04 | $18 | −$1 | -5% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | Jun 03 | $24 | $0 | +0% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET | Jun 03 | $2 | $0 | -2% |
| Ethereum Up or Down on June 3? | Jun 03 | $24 | +$1 | +5% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on June 3? | Jun 03 | $11 | $0 | +4% |
| Solana Up or Down on June 3? | Jun 03 | $6 | −$3 | -57% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | Jun 02 | $4 | $0 | +3% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Jun 02 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Ethereum Up or Down on June 2? | Jun 02 | $12 | $0 | +2% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 9 | -1.2% | -10.6% | 89% | 22% | -24.7% |
| ≤30d | 27 | +0.1% | -9.5% | 81% | 11% | -13.7% |
| ≤90d | 27 | +0.1% | -9.5% | 81% | 11% | -13.7% |
| all | 27 | +0.1% | -9.5% | 81% | 11% | -13.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -9.5% | 11% | -13.7% |
| 10% | -18.1% | 11% | -22.0% |
| 15% | -26.0% | 0% | -29.5% |
| 20% | -33.3% | 0% | -36.4% |