Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:05:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

15
0x1543…baaf
sports · 243 markets active 2h ago
2.5score
+$37,555 +12%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$28,294 · open +$7,568
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Net worth$54,453
Realized+$28,294
Unrealized+$7,568
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses90 / 103
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$3,576
Open positions51
Markets (closed)193 / 243
History coverage104d
Avg bet$1,337
Trades / day31.7
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit89%
Chart Positions 51 History 193 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,375
7 days−$1,347
14 days−$88
30 days+$27,339
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? Yes 20¢ 26¢ $6,871 $8,591 +$1,721 (+25%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 47¢ 64¢ $5,062 $6,984 +$1,922 (+38%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $7,204 $6,391 −$813 (-11%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Yes $3,246 $3,910 +$664 (+20%)
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 16¢ 26¢ $1,964 $3,255 +$1,291 (+66%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Yes 21¢ 31¢ $2,100 $3,100 +$1,000 (+48%)
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027? Yes 21¢ 25¢ $2,154 $2,601 +$447 (+21%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Yes 33¢ 42¢ $1,873 $2,321 +$447 (+24%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Yes 11¢ 26¢ $835 $1,950 +$1,115 (+134%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Yes 10¢ $1,449 $1,691 +$242 (+17%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Yes 13¢ 19¢ $1,003 $1,425 +$422 (+42%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? Yes 13¢ 23¢ $692 $1,194 +$502 (+73%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes $1,076 $985 −$92 (-9%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? Yes 11¢ 18¢ $551 $877 +$326 (+59%)
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31? Yes 44¢ 40¢ $868 $777 −$91 (-10%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? Yes 10¢ $716 $754 +$38 (+5%)
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? No 11¢ 10¢ $724 $691 −$33 (-5%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $615 $615 −$1 (-0%)
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $527 $525 −$2 (-0%)
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? No 67¢ 45¢ $771 $519 −$252 (-33%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by December 31? No $700 $515 −$185 (-26%)
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Down 48¢ 57¢ $422 $502 +$79 (+19%)
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? No 12¢ 11¢ $534 $489 −$44 (-8%)
Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes $587 $466 −$121 (-21%)
Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026? Yes 16¢ $945 $457 −$488 (-52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 10 $821 −$817 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-10.5) Jun 10 $805 −$787 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) Jun 10 $358 −$351 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-8.5) Jun 10 $352 −$345 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-12.5) Jun 10 $402 −$400 -99%
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Jun 10 $138 +$93 +68%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 10 $0 $0 +47%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 10 $1,603 +$225 +14%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 10 $38 +$6 +16%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $160 +$839 +524%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $441 +$3,554 +805%
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) Jun 08 $168 −$165 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-14.5) Jun 08 $8 −$8 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 08 $2,387 −$2,350 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-12.5) Jun 08 $589 −$589 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-11.5) Jun 08 $330 −$330 -100%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $2,334 +$339 +14%
Spread: Knicks (-13.5) Jun 06 $126 −$126 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $1,650 +$3,350 +203%
Spread: Knicks (-10.5) Jun 06 $143 −$139 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-16.5) Jun 05 $699 −$697 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-9.5) Jun 05 $1,246 −$1,236 -99%
Spread: Knicks (-14.5) Jun 05 $273 −$270 -99%
Spread: Knicks (-15.5) Jun 05 $202 −$198 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 Jun 05 $186 −$185 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 05 $424 −$424 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 05 $338 −$338 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 05 $17,764 −$1,281 -7%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 Jun 03 $1,790 −$1,760 -98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $1,898 +$1,938 +102%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $7,470 +$2,362 +32%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 28 $4,098 +$544 +13%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 28 $2,073 +$3 +0%
Spread: Thunder (-9.5) May 28 $1,205 −$1,199 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 27 $2,050 −$2,050 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $2,050 −$2,050 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5 May 26 $1,963 −$1,950 -99%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 7.5 May 26 $442 −$440 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 215.5 May 26 $3,787 −$3,778 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 in May? May 26 $3,453 +$1,641 +48%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 26 $48 −$48 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 26 $930 +$570 +61%
Spread: Knicks (-12.5) May 26 $676 +$2,323 +344%
Spread: Knicks (-9.5) May 26 $24 +$64 +270%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 26 $555 +$945 +170%
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) May 26 $692 +$808 +117%
Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 26.5 May 26 $781 +$719 +92%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) May 26 $2,650 +$2,350 +89%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $2,800 +$2,200 +79%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 26 $35 −$35 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 66% +$16,985
other 12% +$5,560
tech 6% +$6,743
politics 6% +$2,838
world 3% −$3,256
crypto 3% +$1,719
finance 3% +$6,122
economics 1% −$654
culture 0% −$193
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes $1 2h
Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes $2 3h
Will Wes Streeting be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership BUY No 56¢ $140 5h
Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes $2 8h
Will Keir Starmer be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership e BUY Yes 48¢ $20 13h
Will Wes Streeting be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership BUY No 56¢ $0 13h
Will Wes Streeting be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership BUY No 56¢ $33 13h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? BUY Down 48¢ $431 14h
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL Yes 25¢ $500 14h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL Yes 66¢ $295 15h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL Yes $28 20h
Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes $0 23h
Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes $0 23h
Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes $2 27h
Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes $0 27h
Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes $0 27h
Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes $0 27h
Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes $1 27h
Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes $0 27h
Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes $0 28h
Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes $0 30h
Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes $0 30h
Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes $0 30h
Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes $0 30h
Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes $0 30h
Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes $0 30h
Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes $0 30h
Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes $0 30h
Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes $0 33h
Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes $1 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -7.7% -16.5% 30% 30% -17.1%
≤30d 142 +10.0% -0.5% 47% 42% +3.0%
≤90d 191 +4.3% -5.6% 46% 42% +0.9%
all 193 +10.6% +0.1% 47% 42% +0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover31.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.1% 42% +0.9%
10% -9.5% 37% -8.7%
15% ← realistic here -18.2% 35% -17.6%
20% -26.2% 32% -25.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54,452.70 · official $54,452.79 (match) · 3500 history records