trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Knicks (-2.5) | Jun 10 | $821 | −$817 | -100% |
| Spread: Knicks (-10.5) | Jun 10 | $805 | −$787 | -98% |
| Spread: Knicks (-6.5) | Jun 10 | $358 | −$351 | -98% |
| Spread: Knicks (-8.5) | Jun 10 | $352 | −$345 | -98% |
| Spread: Knicks (-12.5) | Jun 10 | $402 | −$400 | -99% |
| Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? | Jun 10 | $138 | +$93 | +68% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? | Jun 10 | $0 | $0 | +47% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? | Jun 10 | $1,603 | +$225 | +14% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? | Jun 10 | $38 | +$6 | +16% |
| Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? | Jun 09 | $160 | +$839 | +524% |
| Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? | Jun 09 | $441 | +$3,554 | +805% |
| Spread: Knicks (-7.5) | Jun 08 | $168 | −$165 | -98% |
| Spread: Knicks (-14.5) | Jun 08 | $8 | −$8 | -98% |
| Spread: Knicks (-2.5) | Jun 08 | $2,387 | −$2,350 | -98% |
| Spread: Knicks (-12.5) | Jun 08 | $589 | −$589 | -100% |
| Spread: Knicks (-11.5) | Jun 08 | $330 | −$330 | -100% |
| Starmer out by December 31, 2026? | Jun 07 | $2,334 | +$339 | +14% |
| Spread: Knicks (-13.5) | Jun 06 | $126 | −$126 | -100% |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Jun 06 | $1,650 | +$3,350 | +203% |
| Spread: Knicks (-10.5) | Jun 06 | $143 | −$139 | -98% |
| Spread: Knicks (-16.5) | Jun 05 | $699 | −$697 | -100% |
| Spread: Knicks (-9.5) | Jun 05 | $1,246 | −$1,236 | -99% |
| Spread: Knicks (-14.5) | Jun 05 | $273 | −$270 | -99% |
| Spread: Knicks (-15.5) | Jun 05 | $202 | −$198 | -98% |
| Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 | Jun 05 | $186 | −$185 | -100% |
| Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 | Jun 05 | $424 | −$424 | -100% |
| Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 | Jun 05 | $338 | −$338 | -100% |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jun 05 | $17,764 | −$1,281 | -7% |
| Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 | Jun 03 | $1,790 | −$1,760 | -98% |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jun 02 | $1,898 | +$1,938 | +102% |
| Starmer out by May 31, 2026? | Jun 01 | $7,470 | +$2,362 | +32% |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? | May 28 | $4,098 | +$544 | +13% |
| Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? | May 28 | $2,073 | +$3 | +0% |
| Spread: Thunder (-9.5) | May 28 | $1,205 | −$1,199 | -100% |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | May 27 | $2,050 | −$2,050 | -100% |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | May 27 | $2,050 | −$2,050 | -100% |
| Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5 | May 26 | $1,963 | −$1,950 | -99% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 7.5 | May 26 | $442 | −$440 | -100% |
| Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 215.5 | May 26 | $3,787 | −$3,778 | -100% |
| Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 in May? | May 26 | $3,453 | +$1,641 | +48% |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | May 26 | $48 | −$48 | -100% |
| Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? | May 26 | $930 | +$570 | +61% |
| Spread: Knicks (-12.5) | May 26 | $676 | +$2,323 | +344% |
| Spread: Knicks (-9.5) | May 26 | $24 | +$64 | +270% |
| Spread: Knicks (-6.5) | May 26 | $555 | +$945 | +170% |
| Spread: Knicks (-3.5) | May 26 | $692 | +$808 | +117% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 26.5 | May 26 | $781 | +$719 | +92% |
| Spread: Knicks (-1.5) | May 26 | $2,650 | +$2,350 | +89% |
| Knicks vs. Cavaliers | May 26 | $2,800 | +$2,200 | +79% |
| Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? | May 26 | $35 | −$35 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 27 | -7.7% | -16.5% | 30% | 30% | -17.1% |
| ≤30d | 142 | +10.0% | -0.5% | 47% | 42% | +3.0% |
| ≤90d | 191 | +4.3% | -5.6% | 46% | 42% | +0.9% |
| all | 193 | +10.6% | +0.1% | 47% | 42% | +0.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | +0.1% | 42% | +0.9% |
| 10% | -9.5% | 37% | -8.7% |
| 15% ← realistic here | -18.2% | 35% | -17.6% |
| 20% | -26.2% | 32% | -25.6% |