Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:37:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x1543…b5e7 crypto 800 markets active 2h ago coverage 92d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 91d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,022 (-2%) realized −$1,016 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%353W / 445L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day32.9pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$1,865
sports 1% +$3
other 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +1.6% -8.1% 15% 15% -8.6%
≤30d 20 +1.6% -8.1% 15% 15% -8.6%
≤90d 594 -5.6% -14.6% 42% 42% -25.3%
all 798 +1.6% -8.1% 44% 44% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.1% 44% -13.1%
10% ← realistic here -16.9% 44% -21.4%
15% -24.9% 44% -29.0%
20% -32.3% 44% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$35 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$1,016
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses353 / 445
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)798 / 800
History coverage92d ⚠
Avg bet$59
Trades / day32.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 798 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $30 $25 −$5 (-18%)
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $21 +$202 +982%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 +$56 +276%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 +$97 +474%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Apr 04 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Apr 04 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Apr 04 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Apr 04 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Apr 04 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Apr 04 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Apr 04 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Apr 04 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Apr 04 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Apr 04 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Apr 04 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Apr 04 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Apr 04 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Apr 04 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Apr 04 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Apr 04 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Apr 04 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Apr 04 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Apr 04 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Apr 04 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Apr 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Apr 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Apr 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Apr 04 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Apr 04 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Apr 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Apr 04 $9 +$10 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Apr 04 $9 +$10 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Apr 04 $9 +$10 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Apr 04 $9 +$10 +102%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 1h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 6d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 6d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 6d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 6d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 6d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 6d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 6d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 6d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 6d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 6d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 6d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 6d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 6d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 6d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 6d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 6d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 6d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 6d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 6d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $31 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $9 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $9 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $6 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $19 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $19 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $9 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $9 79d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.87 · official $43.87 (match) · 3500 history records