Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:19:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x1543…757d crypto 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (82 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+1%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate79%37W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day82.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (82 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -0.8% -10.2% 79% 36% -10.2%
≤30d 47 -0.8% -10.2% 79% 36% -10.2%
≤90d 47 -0.8% -10.2% 79% 36% -10.2%
all 47 -0.8% -10.2% 79% 36% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover82.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.2% 36% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -18.8% 17% -18.8%
15% -26.7% 2% -26.6%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses37 / 10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)47 / 47
History coverage1d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day82.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 47 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$5 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$3 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 82¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 151 history records