Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:12:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x1545…7757 other 237 markets active 2h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$70 (-0%) realized −$70 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%10W / 227L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$204per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$16
14 days−$26
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$37
sports 24% −$26
politics 9% −$7
culture 7% −$7
crypto 6% −$3
economics 5% −$3
world 2% $0
finance 0% +$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 71 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 179 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 237 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 60% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$70
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses10 / 227
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)237 / 237
History coverage127d
Avg bet$204
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 237 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $427 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $148 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $173 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $633 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $448 −$1 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $49 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $247 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $442 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $796 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $845 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $349 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $293 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $206 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $449 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $323 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 14 $256 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $314 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 13 $141 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $418 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $1,006 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $310 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $166 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $363 −$1 -0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $141 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $218 $0 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $106 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $412 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $165 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $53 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $288 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $99 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $571 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $223 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $381 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $120 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 07 $306 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $240 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $358 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 07 $64 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $172 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $144 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $481 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $173 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $306 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $144 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $57 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 02 $203 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 02 $158 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? May 31 $245 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $48 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $48 3h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $48 4h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $48 5h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $48 8h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $48 10h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $48 13h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $48 14h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $48 17h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $49 18h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $49 20h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $49 22h
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $49 26h
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $49 27h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $34 27h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $15 29h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $49 31h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $49 32h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $49 34h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $49 35h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $49 36h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $49 41h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $49 42h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $49 44h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $49 45h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $49 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $49 2d
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $49 2d
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $50 2d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $50 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1309 history records