Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:48:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x154a…aaaf crypto 73 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-3%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate89%65W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$4
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% $0
sports 18% $0
weather 5% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 -8.0% -16.7% 89% 3% -14.8%
≤30d 73 -4.0% -13.1% 89% 8% -11.6%
≤90d 73 -4.0% -13.1% 89% 8% -11.6%
all 73 -4.0% -13.1% 89% 8% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 8% -11.6%
10% -21.4% 4% -20.0%
15% -29.0% 4% -27.7%
20% -36.0% 4% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses65 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)73 / 73
History coverage12d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 73 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? Jun 14 $7 +$1 +21%
Japan to score first vs. Netherlands? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +5%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 3? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 17h
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? SELL Yes 99¢ $3 17h
Japan to score first vs. Netherlands? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 17h
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 17h
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? SELL No 46¢ $2 18h
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? SELL Yes 53¢ $3 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 147 history records