Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:18:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
15 0x154d…6bf9 other 335 markets active 2h ago coverage 181d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$134 (+3%) realized +$150 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate41%133W / 193L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$42
7 days−$12
14 days+$12
30 days+$94
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% +$127
sports 34% −$32
crypto 19% +$6
politics 3% −$4
world 1% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 -13.6% -21.8% 35% 35% -11.1%
≤30d 196 +6.0% -4.1% 45% 42% -4.9%
≤90d 298 +7.4% -2.8% 42% 39% -8.9%
all 326 +6.7% -3.4% 41% 38% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.4% 38% -7.8%
10% -12.7% 36% -16.6%
15% -21.1% 34% -24.6%
20% -28.8% 30% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$7 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

181d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized+$150
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses133 / 193
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions4
Markets (closed)326 / 335
History coverage181d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 326 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-36%)
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 146 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -90%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $20 +$46 +224%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$10 +101%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 +$4 +83%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $7 +$34 +474%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$36 +71%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $15 −$3 -18%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $72 −$40 -55%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $15 +$2 +11%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $31 −$1 -2%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $11 +$5 +42%
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $10 −$4 -42%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $6 −$6 -99%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $11 −$10 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$11 +109%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 +$5 +474%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $15 −$15 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$4 +40%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $40 +$16 +39%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$12 +114%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 −$4 -38%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$5 +52%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $23 +$26 +113%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$10 +101%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5 +$5 +97%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $20 +$9 +46%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$29 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 +$21 +202%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $25 +$3 +13%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 84¢ $66 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 1h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $20 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 90¢ $20 5h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 5h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 7h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 7h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 8h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $5 13h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 30¢ $10 13h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 17¢ $7 29h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 40¢ $12 31h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $13 31h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $38 36h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 37h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 56¢ $10 39h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 40h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND W BUY 32¢ $15 40h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 62¢ $20 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $17 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $30 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 81¢ $8 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 31¢ $8 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 84¢ $16 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $44 2d
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 SELL Over 37¢ $6 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.67 · official $19.67 (match) · 805 history records