Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:04:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x154d…c9e6 crypto 401 markets active 2h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$253 (+3%) realized +$256 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate81%322W / 77L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$354now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$154
7 days−$49
14 days+$388
30 days+$388
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% −$219
other 27% +$659
world 2% −$98
sports 1% −$106
economics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -16.2% -24.2% 50% 44% -12.1%
≤30d 21 +2.9% -6.9% 57% 52% +7.2%
≤90d 397 -2.3% -11.6% 81% 5% -6.6%
all 399 -2.4% -11.7% 81% 5% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 5% -6.8%
10% -20.1% 3% -15.7%
15% -27.8% 3% -23.9%
20% -34.9% 2% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$11 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$354
Realized+$256
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses322 / 77
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)399 / 401
History coverage112d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 399 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $337 $334 −$3 (-1%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 62¢ 64¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $69 −$67 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $94 +$54 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $159 −$157 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $63 +$85 +134%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $39 −$38 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $100 −$2 -2%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$7 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $227 +$109 +48%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 +$2 +12%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 +$48 +48%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $288 +$6 +2%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $150 −$148 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$74 +73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $113 +$129 +114%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $214 +$339 +158%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$31 +152%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $159 +$66 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Apr 18 $4 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Apr 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Apr 18 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Apr 18 $8 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Apr 18 $17 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Apr 18 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Apr 18 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Apr 18 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Apr 18 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Apr 18 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Apr 18 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Apr 18 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Apr 18 $8 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Apr 18 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Apr 18 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Apr 18 $15 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Apr 18 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Apr 18 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Apr 18 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Apr 18 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Apr 18 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Apr 18 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Apr 18 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Apr 18 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Apr 18 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Apr 18 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Apr 17 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Apr 17 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Apr 17 $8 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $114 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $228 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $20 10h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $48 10h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 10h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $94 18h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 19h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $159 23h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 41h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $63 47h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $39 47h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 86¢ $98 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 87¢ $100 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $30 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $197 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 67¢ $101 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 89¢ $20 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 9¢ $10 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $150 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $278 5d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 59¢ $101 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 57¢ $101 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $113 6d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 39¢ $20 7d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $214 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $149 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $4 61d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $354.46 · official $354.52 (match) · 909 history records