Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:48:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x1552…2d4e other 264 markets active 1h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$83 (-0%) realized −$83 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%11W / 253L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$211per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$20
14 days−$31
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$45
sports 20% −$20
politics 9% −$8
culture 6% −$6
crypto 5% −$5
economics 5% −$6
world 5% −$4
tech 1% −$1
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 72 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 183 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 264 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$83
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses11 / 253
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)264 / 264
History coverage138d
Avg bet$211
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 264 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $112 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $289 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $344 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $465 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $119 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $685 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $670 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $456 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $56 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $391 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $550 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $472 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $552 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $235 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 15 $189 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $300 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $56 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $280 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $360 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $149 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $224 $0 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $144 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $289 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $655 −$2 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $373 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $277 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $58 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $333 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $285 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $419 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $288 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $487 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $328 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 11 $546 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $614 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $407 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $371 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $264 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $538 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $306 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $240 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $328 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $494 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $501 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $247 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $446 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $295 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $61 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $589 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $127 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $55 1h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $55 2h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $55 11h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $55 12h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $55 14h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $55 15h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $55 17h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $55 19h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $55 20h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $55 22h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $55 23h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $55 25h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $55 26h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $55 28h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $55 29h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 31h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $55 32h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $56 33h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $56 36h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $56 38h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $56 38h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 39h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $56 44h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 45h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $56 47h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $56 2d
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $56 2d
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $56 2d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $56 2d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $56 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1428 history records